On June 18th, 2025, the Chicago Blackhawks announced that they extended 29 year old forward Ryan Donato to a 4 year and $16M extension ($4M AAV). This comes on the heels of a career high 62-point campaign with the Blackhawks. There is some concern that this anomalous season could have Donato overvalued, but let’s break down some of his history.

Donato entered the league on a part time basis with the Boston Bruins playing 12 games in the 2017-2018 season following an impressive 3-year stint with Harvard that saw him post a career best of 43 points in 29 games in his final season before joining the Bruins. He would split time between the Boston and Providence (their AHL affiliate) in 2018-2019 before being dealt to the Minnesota Wild. In 2019-2020 Donato had his first “full” campaign in the NHL where he played 62 game for the Wild. In those 62 games, he posted 26 points. Notably, he would post what was a career high (until 2024-2025) in GAR with a 6.5 without playing sheltered minutes (32.6% DzS vs 30.4% OzS rate at 5v5). Donato would spend the next season with the San Jose Sharks where he would score 20 points in 50 games, but see his GAR decrease to 4.8. Following the Seattle Expansion Draft, Donato would join the Kraken in a middle-six capacity. In his two year stint in Seattle Donato was remarkably consistent in his role recording 31 and 27 points respectively with PPG rates of 0.42 and 0.38 to match. Despite finding his role in Seattle as a viable depth contributor, he and Seattle parted ways ahead of the 2023-2024 season. Donato would use his time on the market to join the Blackhawks on a 2 year $4M deal ($2M AAV). The first year of the deal saw Donato’s productivity remain consistent as he recorded 30 points (0.38 PPG) but a decline in GAR, as he recorded a career low of 0.1. Objectively, the entire team was awful, and Donato’s defensive deficiencies did not help him nor the team, but his -3.5 Defensive GAR was not a primary factor in Chicago’s collective incompetence. 2024-2025 saw Donato breakthrough playing with 2nd year superstar Connor Bedard. Donato seemingly put it all together in a season that saw him score 31 goals for the first time in his career (with a perfect 31 assists to match) while matching his career high in GAR with a 6.5.

Looking at the shape of Donato’s career above, a $4M AAV contract with term is an accurate valuation of his abilities and future contributions to the organization. Statistically, the most recent season was anomalous for Donato’s scoring productivity, but the fact that his GAR has been incredibly consistent over his entire career tells the story of a serviceable top-9 forward in the NHL. Donato’s biggest area of regression potential rests in having shot 17% this past season, which is 55% higher than his career average of 11.1%; however, his increased finishing percentage could be a product of playing with an elite playmaker and improving the overall quality of his shot selection. With his cap hit being 4.2% of Chicago’s total salary space for 2025-2026, this is an appropriate value contract for both player and team.