One of my favorite signings of the summer is Matt Duchene to Dallas on a one-year, $3 Million deal. Last season, he was a star producer averaging .79 points per game, shooting 13.1% and achieving a point share of 5.7 (per Hockey Reference). He finished second in points among all Nashville Predators, only behind Roman Josi. During the 22-23 season, the entire Nashville team’s scoring tapered off, which indicates that either team age or system changes contributed to Duchene’s reduced output. In the 2022 season, Duchene had a superstar season where he averaged 1.1 points a game while shooting a mind blowing 18.9%, trailing only Chris Kreider and Leon Draisaitl (min. 200 SOG), and netting 43 goals and 43 assists.
Last season, he posted a Relative Corsi of +2.2% and a Relative Fenwick of +2.1% (Shot control and suppression relative to own teammates). Duchene averaged 18:19 minutes a night. The only Dallas forward who saw a higher deployment was Jason Robertson at 18:50 a night. While Duchene averaged .79 PPG, the Stars had four players who had more: Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, Jamie Benn and Joe Pavelski. According to Evolving Hockey’s SPAR Model, Duchene’s 22-23 performance reflected a $6.3 Million value, with his GAR at 8.3, and his SPAR at 2.7.
Duchene is adding elite scoring depth to a team that finished 7th in GF/GP last season, and due to their depth, is available to play on either the second or third line. Duchene has not been on a team with this much offensive productivity since the 13-14 Colorado Avalanche, who were 4th in the league in scoring. Duchene has a vast ceiling for his output this season, and at $3 million dollars, he has the opportunity to be one of the most valuable SPAR per dollar this season.
-Damien
Sources Referenced:
https://www.hockey-reference.com/players/d/duchema01.html
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