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Tampa Bay Lightning: A Small Glimmer of Hope Among a Storm of Inevitable Goodbyes

Tampa Bay has had it good in recent memory, to say the least. From 2014-15 onward, they have made four Finals appearances, won two Stanley Cups, and a Presidents’ Trophy in a statistically Earth-shattering regular season (we’ll just… gloss over what happened that postseason, it’s irrelevant for the purpose of this conversation and you probably already had that one infamous tweet pop into your head just by mention of it). This includes having made the Finals three straight seasons between 2019-20 and 2021-22, winning their two Cups in this span of dominance in the first two appearances. The salary cap has presented challenges to the team given the nature of their talent-, veteran-laden roster, however (we also won’t touch upon the manner in how they’ve managed to work around that at times – Not my place to get into that subject from any angle or voice any opinion on the matter since that goes against the goals this blog seeks to accomplish), and eventually, GM Julien BriseBois was going to have deal with the reality of the challenges that configuration eventually presents. After falling to the Toronto Maple Leafs in six games in round one this past year, they are confronted with that now – In spades. Let us take a look at how this current phase is going for the Bolts.

As was implied, this article is mostly going to deal with the departures that the Lightning had to deal with. As covered in my Ducks article, LW Alex Killorn left for Anaheim in free agency. While he is now approaching 34 years of age, he was a well-liked staple that had a decent hand in their success with his goal-scoring touch, and it is difficult and saddening for the organization and fans to have had to part ways with him. The Bolts additionally lost backup G Brian Elliott (who merits a mention, even if his best days are behind him and though he remains unsigned, by name recognition); C Pierre-Edouard Bellemare; G Maxime Legace; D Daniel Walcott; C Logan Brown; C Gemel Smith; D Ian Cole; LW Pierre-Cedric Labrie; and D Dominik Masin and elected not to tender a qualifying offer to LW Rudolf Balcers. Additionally, the team had to trade away some of their most well-recognized veteran depth pieces in the form of LW Patrick Maroon (his assets as a player are covered here, in Christian’s Minnesota Wild report) alongside prospect RW Max Cajkovic to Minnesota for a seventh round pick in 2024, Ross Colton to the Colorado Avalanche for the 37th overall pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft (which ended up being RW Ethan Gauthier from the QMJHL’s Sherbrooke Phoenix – More on him later), and RW Corey Perry in exchange for a 2024 seventh round pick from the Chicago Blackhawks. None of these are easy to have to part ways with, but Colton especially is a sad loss – As noted by Christian, his two-way talents are valuable, and Bleacher Report points out that he was their most productive player of the three trade relinquishments. That said, the team made moves to replenish their draft stock a bit, and Colton yielded a good return. As stated, we will make some assessments on what Gauthier could potentially yield for the Bolts later on in the article. The team’s primary additions came by way of a very solid forward group strengthening by way of the addition of LW Conor Sheary on a three-way, $2 million AAV deal. This was a pretty good deal for the team, as the 31-year-old Winchester, MA native and two-time Stanley Cup champion is a phenomenal high-danger and one-timer passer, has the capacity for good offensive upside, and has experience playing alongside elite talent. This was sneakily one of the best cheap signings of the summer. The Bolts also added RW Josh Archibald, who had 195 hits in 62 games with the Pittsburgh Penguins last season and will likely be a solid bottom-six defensive asset and grinder. The team also gave LW Tanner Jeannot a two-year extension with an AAV of $2.665 million. His rookie season with Nashville established a solid precedent with his 24 goals, but those numbers dipped dramatically. As noted by TheHockeyNews, the most worrying aspect of his goal total dropping all the way to 6 this past season is that Tampa gave up a significant amount for him in February, relinquishing D Cal Foote and five draft picks, including a 2025 (lottery protected) first-rounder to the Predators. It will certainly pay off that the team is going for it with Jeannot, however, if he rediscovers his scoring touch and continues to physically make his presence known.

Beyond this, however, there was a noteworthy extension, given to LW Brandon Hagel to the tune of eight years, $52 million. Set to start in the 2024-25 season, it seems to be a reward for the 24-year-old’s breakout season wherein he scored 30 goals and 34 assists, complemented by 5 points in their six-game round one loss to Toronto. However, plenty of models seem to suggest that this performance could be sustained, and that more opportunities could be opened up for him. As noted by Clutchpoints, some of the roster changes that have occurred and/or are likely to come soon could see increased playing time for Hagel alongside elite players, on the top power play unit, etc. In cited tweets within the afore-linked article by The Athletic’s Dom Luszczyszyn and JFreshHockey, there are also encouraging metrics/projections to the former Chicago Blackhawk’s name, particularly in expected value in offensive categories this coming year, as well as WAR. The deal is also taking place in a time just before a steady rise in the league’s cap, as well as a corresponding increase in average salaries around the league, therefore making it a somewhat sensible move even with inherent risks involved, and more economical for Tampa than it might appear on the surface. Overall, not bad for the Lightning to have this piece locked down long-term. Lastly, the team gave D Darren Raddysh a two-year, $1.95 million extension set to kick in in 2024-25.

Let us start our coverage of the Bolts’ performance in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft by looking at 37th overall pick Ethan Gauthier closely (the team did not have a first round pick as it was traded to the Blackhawks a few days prior to the 2022 trade deadline). The son of former NHL defenseman Denis Gauthier (whose longest tenure was with the Calgary Flames), Gauthier was ranked 31st by Chris Peters prior to the draft. He has been lauded for his playmaking skills and his tenacity and posted 69 points in 66 regular season games along with a +29 for Sherbrooke this past year, coupled with an additional 11 points in 11 postseason games. He has some promise, and there is a good chance giving up Colton for him will have pretty significant long-term benefits. The team selected another RW in round 4 at 115th, in the form of Jayson Shuagabay. Currently with the Green Bay Gamblers of the USHL, the University of Minnesota-Duluth commit put up excellent numbers with Warroad High in Minnesota, posting 304 points in 110 career games. Peters notably had him ranked 98th in his top 100. A pretty good value pick, making two pretty satisfying selections in a row. Only having three further picks after these second and fourth round selections, the team rounded out the draft by taking D Warren Clark from the MJHL’s Steinbach Pistons (committed to St. Cloud State), C Jack Harvey from the USHL’s Chicago Steel (committed to Boston University, he has received praise for his puck skills and posted 123 points in 102 games with the Steel over the last two seasons), and C Ethan Hay of the OHL’s Flint Firebirds. For a team without much draft stock and no first-round selections, the Lightning did alright for themselves here.

Julien BriseBois has done a decent job with his back inevitably placed against the wall. The team has also punched above its weight in some areas, making some alright signings for themselves to strengthen their depth within their budget in the short term, and made sure to secure a very important piece for the future. I will be giving the Tampa Bay Lightning a B+ for their performance this summer. I think they are handling their predicament about as well as they can, exhibiting some creativity, and did well to keep a valuable offensive weapon on the books for a long time. They deserve commendation for their performance in this scenario, as well as for their fairly respectable draft selections in a year where they were without much to work with.

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