This opinion piece serves as an extension of both some of my evaluations in my Toronto article that was published yesterday and other discussions had on this site and amongst the Black Stitch Hockey circle. The 95th overall selection in round three by the Philadelphia Flyers of C Denver Barkey of the OHL’s London Knights and his possible undervaluing present some interesting questions about NHL scouting’s priorities. As noted by Christian in his Flyers offseason review, this is a kid who had a draft year comparable according to HockeyProspecting of Brad Marchand, who scored at nearly the same clip in the lead-up to his NHL Entry Draft selection at 71st overall in round three (66 points in 68 regular season games with the QMJHL’s Moncton Wildcats, followed by 19 points in 20 postseason games) as Barkey did in 2022-23 (59 points in 61 games with London, followed by a 24 points in 20 games clip in the postseason – A little above a point-per-game). It is not a lock that Barkey will make a huge impact on the NHL, but is there not reason for optimism? Say what you will about Marchand’s unlikeable attributes, but we are talking about a player who was undeniably among the best at his position for several seasons in a row, who has 5 80+ point seasons to his name. The fact that there is even a chance according to Byron Bader’s model that Barkey could be that means his value might have been underestimated, especially when contrasted with some picks made ahead of him. Why is that? It could be his physical profile rather than his skill level. Let us take a closer look at this phenomenon.

Perhaps the most unusual element of the Barkey scenario, as noted in my Maple Leafs article and illuminated by YouTuber TacTixHD, is that his London Knights teammate, C Easton Cowan, was picked 28th overall in round one by the Toronto Maple Leafs. This is not a very flattering pick when you consider that Cowan produced at a lower offensive clip in the 2022-23 OHL season, putting up 53 points in 68 regular season games, followed by 21 in 20 playoff outings. Both players contributed a good deal to the Knights winning their fourth consecutive (a streak dating back to the 2018-19 season, due to the COVID-19 pandemic induced cancellation of the 2020-21 CHL season) Midwest division title and making it to the OHL championship where they fell to the Peterborough Petes. However, it should be pretty clear who had the more significant impact. To top that off, recall the Brad Marchand draft year comparison for Barkey for a moment. According to Bader’s model, the most high-end comparables for Cowan are David Perron, Chris Kreider, and Alexander Frolov, who are fringe stars by HockeyProspecting’s standards – But that’s in contrast to Brad Marchand’s superstar status in that model. Of course, there are high degrees of variation for both players in terms of their comps, but this demonstrates that Barkey’s ceiling is higher based off of the data we have currently. Further, as it stands, Cowan’s star probability is just 6% and his NHLer probability stands at 24%, in contrast with Barkey’s 19% and 57% respectively.

With these statistics in mind, one must ask: Why did Barkey go so much later than his teammate Cowan? As some, including TacTixHD, myself, and some in my circle have speculated upon, it may have to do with the fact that Barkey is one inch shorter, as well as 16 pounds lighter. This is a ludicrous point of contention – You can present the argument that Barkey needs to fill out his frame (though it almost assuredly will occur, even if it’s simply just as much as him falling somewhere in the low-170’s), but height is virtually a non-issue. Marchand is 5’9″, for instance, and, among all NHL left wingers, was top in the league in points and assists along with being third in goals between the 2018-19 through 2020-21 seasons and has four All-Star team selections to his name (two each for first and second team). That is just one of many sub-6’0″ skater examples that I can provide demonstrating that height is a non-issue, as well – We know the sort of careers that Patrick Kane and Sidney Crosby have had, as well as the explosive talent that Jack Hughes has shown since being drafted first overall in 2019. I would love to discuss this from a standpoint of affecting goaltending prospects, as well, but we already have an article on that in the works, and it will be a very intensive project facilitated by our two goaltending experts that we have on staff here at Black Stitch so I will leave that to them. Therefore, remaining on the topic of skaters, I cannot help but notice that the emphasis on height is such that Flyers first round pick/seventh overall selection Matvei Michkov was listed at 6’0″ on the night of round one, when he had been billed at 5’10” most consistently in the past. The fixation is so absurd that it transcends to the point of comedy at times. While I placed an emphasis on the sub-6’0″ threshold, I will note that this is a binary of 5’9″ vs. 5’10” in the Barkey vs. Cowan discussion; however, the Michkov example further demonstrates that even the smallest minutiae make such a significant deal to scouts, and one has to sort of shake their heads at it.

Let it be known that I do not think it is a fait accompli that Barkey will live up to the Marchand comparison – Of course that is not a lock, as many favors as it being so would do the Flyers on the other side of their rebuilding efforts and I am certain all Flyers fans and the organization would love to see. However, this does show he could have and perhaps should have been swapped with Cowan in the order of those two selections if not been a first round pick as Cowan was in the actual sequence of events, and likely would have if skill were overwhelmingly the biggest determining factor. At the least, the value of his pick was significantly higher, and that can be further emphasized by how high is ceiling is in contrast with that of Cowan’s based off of their draft year comps. I hope that Barkey is aware of this phenomenon having struck him and perhaps having affected his value to this degree, and that it puts a chip on his shoulder to motivate him to live up to his full potential or at least something close to it. I say that not just a fan of the team that drafted him, but as a fan of young players who could make for good underdog stories. I do not have any resentment towards Cowan (as I do not believe in using my platform to blast individual players) that he was the beneficiary of this prioritization, either – I just know who I find makes a more compelling horse to root for in the race between these two London Knights products due to how the scales were tilted between these two and what that tilting says about hockey scouting’s faults. Let us see how it plays out in the long run in the wake of this interesting yet mostly unnoticed draft narrative.