It’s finally time for the best playoffs in sports to get underway with the NHL postseason kicking off at 5PM EST on April 20^th. As is customary, we’ve thrown together some playoff brackets. Full disclosure, I know a lot about this league and this sport, (Look back to our pre-season predictions for more context) but I tend to have bad luck in the playoffs. I’d say as a bettor, you might want to go in the opposite direction of these picks.

Western Conference

Round 1

(C1) Dallas Stars vs (WC2) Vegas Golden Knights

• A rematch of last year’s Western Conference Final scheduled for the first round this year is always an exciting time for the fans at home but isn’t as exciting for the teams that dream the match-up.
• Vegas defeated Dallas in all three contests this season, but the last of those matchups occurred back in December, long before Jake Oettinger got his game back on track.
• Vegas has exceptional defensive depth and is seeing LTIR players return in time for the first round, but Dallas has 8 20+ goal scorers on their roster and defensive depth to match.

Verdict: Dallas Stars in 6 games

(C2) Winnipeg Jets vs (C3) Colorado Avalanche

• An interesting first round matchup between a perennial cup favorite in the lower-seeded Avs and one of the conference’s two longshot teams in the Jets
• The Jets have beaten the Avs in all three of their head-to-head games this season, with an emphatic 7-0 victory in their last contest.
• High-end star power will likely determine the outcome of this series with the likes of Connor Hellebuyck, Josh Morrissey, Kyle Connor, Nathan Mackinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen

Verdict: Colorado Avalanche in 7 games

(P1) Vancouver Canucks vs (WC1) Nashville Predators

• A pair of teams I saw as postseason long shots will meet in the first round for an unexpected series of two of the league’s most interesting teams.
• The Canucks defeated the Preds in all three head-to-head matchups this season and were among the league’s most dangerous scoring hockey teams.
• Vancouver is the heavy favorite to win in this series; however, Juuse Saros, as one of the league’s best goaltenders, has the ability to tilt this series in Nashville’s favor if he gets hot.

Verdict: Vancouver Canucks in 6 games

(P2) Edmonton Oilers vs (P3) Los Angeles Kings

• A matchup between two teams who play two vastly different styles of hockey to different levels of success. The Oilers got off to a slow start to the year but were able to recover in the back half of the season.
• The Oilers won three of the four contests between these two teams, and since the signing of Corey Perry have been able to find the depth scoring that has been lacking in previous playoff runs.
• The Kings have gotten an incredible outcome from Mike Buckley’s work with their goalies this year, as well as the team’s neutral zone trap, but this Edmonton group has more sandpaper down their lineup than years past that will be able to endure the trap.

Verdict: Edmonton Oilers in 5 games

Round 2

(C1) Dallas Stars vs (C3) Colorado Avalanche

• A classic central division rivalry that hockey fans have been hoping to see return in the postseason since their barn-burning 7 game series in 2020.
• Colorado had a 3-1 edge over Dallas in the regular season, but both teams are playing their best hockey heading into the postseason.
• This series will be defined by whether Colorado’s depth scoring breaks through, as Dallas can and will roll their top-9 against the Mackinnon line to neutralize and overwhelm the best line in the Western Conference

Verdict: Dallas Stars in 7 games

(P1) Vancouver Canucks vs (P2) Edmonton Oilers

• This series will be a rollercoaster ride due to both teams’ high risk, high reward plays in the offensive zone. The Oilers overwhelm teams with their speed and skill, where the Canucks set up SS+ scoring chances that they seldom don’t finish.
• The Canucks swept the season series 4-0; however, the first three match ups occurred under the previous coaching regime for the Oilers and aren’t much of a factor in evaluating this matchup.
• The biggest factors in the series will be the play of Thatcher Demko and Stuart Skinner, as goaltending is key in matchups as even as this in the skater group.

Verdict: Vancouver Canucks in 6 games

Western Conference Finals

(C1) Dallas Stars vs (C1) Vancouver Canucks

• Yes, I do believe that there is a probability higher than any other that the two western division champions will meet one another in a surprising match up in the conference final.
• Dallas won the season series 2-1, and their depth has allowed them to keep Vancouver’s scoring at bay in all three matchups.
• By this point in the postseason, health will be a key factor in which team comes out on top. If the lineups remain intact by then, Dallas will use its depth against the Pettersson line, the same way they would the Mackinnon line.

Verdict: Dallas Stars in 6 games

Eastern Conference

First Round

(A1) Florida Panthers vs (WC1) Tampa Bay Lightning

• An exciting intrastate matchup between the best defensive team in the East in Florida, and the 2^nd strongest scoring team in the East in the Lightning
• The Panthers won the season series 2-1, with their offense managing to breakthrough for at least 3 goals in all three contests.
• Both teams have shown the ability to score at will at times this season, especially on the power play. This series will come down to which goalie is more consistent between Bobrovsky and Vasilevskiy. Bob has been better down the stretch which bodes well for Florida, but Tampa Bay faithful will be counting on Vasy to have his He-Man moment in this series.

Verdict: Florida Panthers in 7 games

(A2) Boston Bruins vs (A3) Toronto Maple Leafs

• A classic matchup between two of the most interesting teams in the Eastern Conference, with a long history of intense playoff matchups
• The Bruins won the season series 4-0, effectively putting them in the heads of their opponents.
• Both teams have effectively limped into the playoffs losing 2 and 4 games respectively. This series will come down to depth scoring and matchups as it always does, as the Matthews line and the Pastrnak line usually shake out to an even matchup.

Verdict: Boston Bruins in 7 games

(D1) New York Rangers vs (WC2) Washington Capitals

• On paper, this series is a bloodbath in favor of the Rangers, but based on underlying analytics, it should be closer at 5-on-5 than the casual viewer would expect.
• The season series was split 2 and 2 on the year. Both teams were effectively evenly matched at even strength in those games
• Goaltending will be critical in this series. Shesterkin is one of the top goalies in the world, but Lindgren has been Washington’s best play on a lot of nights this season.

Verdict: New York Rangers in 6 games

(M2) Caroline Hurricanes vs (M3) New York Islanders

• Much like the other Metropolitan division matchup, this should be unpleasant for the lower seeded team on paper. The Islanders’ scoring is lacking against the Canes, and their defense is leaky at best with one of the league’s best goalies behind it.
• The season series is split at 2 wins a piece, but Carolina scoring 4 goals in all four contests is not assuring for the Isles. To New York’s credit, they did dominate both of their wins in this series with high shooting percentage at 5-on-5.
• The question in this series for Carolina will be their goaltending, like it has been for the last several years. Assuming a healthy and above average series from Andersen, the Hurricanes have a noticeable edge in this matchup.

Verdict: Hurricanes in 5 games

Second Round

(A1) Florida Panthers vs (A2) Boston Bruins

• The Panthers have been a more complete team than the Bruins this season, winning 5 more games, and edging them out in both goals for and goals against
• The Bruins swept the Panthers 4-0 in this year’s season series. All those games were decided by one goal.
• In last year’s first round match-up, the Panthers stunned the historically good Bruins due to coaching decisions and injuries on the Boston side. Based on the health of both teams this season, this series will be almost too close to call.

Verdict: Boston Bruins in 7 games

(M1) New York Rangers vs (M2) Carolina Hurricanes

• This matchup has seemed inevitable since last season, before the Rangers were upended by the New Jersey Devils in 7 games. Both teams feature complete, and at times completely overwhelming forward groups.
• The season series between these two teams was won 2-1 by the Rangers, both of whose wins were by one goal; however, their defeat was a 5 goal blow out.
• In such a tight series, the biggest question will be whether Frederik Andersen or Igor Shesterkin can make the big save(s) to get their team into the next round. Shesty is an unknown, Freddy has failed to do it more times than he has.

Verdict: New York Rangers in 7 games

East Conference Final

(M1) New York Rangers vs (A2) Boston Bruins

• Defensively, both teams are very evenly matched, with the Rangers holding a slight advantage in the top of forward group offensively.
• The Rangers defeated the Bruins in all three of their contests this season, 2 of them as 3 goal wins, and one as an overtime victory. Of note in these games, is that the Rangers were incredibly efficient at 5-on-5, which has not been their strength in most games this season.
• This series would be the first time that Boston would be overwhelmed by their opposing forward depth, while being matched on both defense and in goal in any series this year, and assuming both teams are healthy, would be a series where home-ice line change advantage would be problematic for them.

Verdict: New York Rangers in 6 games

Stanley Cup Final

(C1) Dallas Stars vs (M1) New York Rangers

• The chances of the top teams in each conference playing each other are unlikely, but at the time of writing, these two teams have the depth at all positions, the high end talent, and the end of season momentum to convince me that they can make it to the Stanley Cup Final.
• The season series was split 1 and 1 between these two teams this season, with both teams picking up a multi-goal victory.
• The two biggest factors in the series would be health in goaltending. If Oettinger and Shesterkin are both on their game, the Rangers have an incredibly slight edge in this series if both teams are at full health.

Verdict: Dallas Stars in 6 games