It is no secret that the US National Team Development Program has developed a great track record in talent production and making a mark on the NHL. It is perhaps arguable that some prospects have, in a manner comparable to the OHL’s London Knights, have benefited from the name recognition and esteem of coming from a system with such an excellent reputation and seen their draft stock increase in correspondence with said association. However, it is also undeniable that being in that system is genuinely beneficial for prospects’ growths. Even so, is it possible that a certain name from the US NTDP is being undervalued in this upcoming draft? Here is why I think a certain Boston College-bound US NTDP talent should be evaluated as an unambiguous first round selection, despite the conversation around him not universally being pointed in that direction.

Now, firstly, just who is this young winger and what has his ice hockey career looked like to this point? Teddy Stiga was born in Sudbury, MA on April 5th, 2006. His AAA days were spent initially within the Middlesex Islanders system before moving on to the Boston Junior Eagles. His talents were then taken to the Belmont Hill School, wherein he posted 21 points in 23 games as his team progressed to the finals. His performance was enough for him to be recruited into the US National Team Development Program based in Plymouth, Michigan. In contests against USHL competition, Stiga tallied 12 points in 27 games, while he totaled 21 points in 49 overall matches for the U17 team in 2022-23. He was featured on the U17-WHC team that captured the gold medal, with 3 points in 7 games to his name in the tournament. This past/incumbent season at the U18 level, Stiga clearly took a step up after his offseason conditioning/training efforts. He performed to the tune of 75 points in 57 games across the US NTDP schedule, with a +39. Currently, Stiga is playing some of the best hockey of his life at the U18 WJC. The preliminary round for the tourney just concluded today (4/30) and Stiga saved his best for last, netting a natural hat trick (making him one of two Americans with hattys on the day, with James Hagens having a trio of goals of his own in addition to three assists) against the hosts, Finland, in a 9-4 win for the USA. This brought his stats for the tourney to 5g-5a-10p in 4 games played as he helped the US NTDP easily top their group. One has to fancy the notion that he will continue this impressive form in the knockout rounds.

To that point, I think that, while I have come to somewhat lament the fact that scouting has become reliant upon tournaments such as the U18 and U20 WJCs almost to a fault, upping one’s games under intense scrutiny/against strong competition is something worth evaluating. It is pertinent to call back to the US NTDP’s game against eventual Final Four squad Boston University this past season, from which the Development Program emerged forth 8-2 victors. While Stiga did not light up that game in the manner that soon-to-be BU Terrier Cole Eiserman (a surefire round one selection and very arguably the best pure goal scorer of the 2024 NHL Entry Draft class) did via the fellow Bay Stater’s 3 goals and 2 assists, he did have a very respectable statline of 2a, 3 SOG, 1 blk, and a +2. He has not consistently been knocking down doors in the US NTDP’s schedule, but he has made a habit this past season of showing up when scrutiny is on him. He has the work rate (both on and off the ice), the reading and processing skills already, and has been growing his physical tools and seeing results in correspondence with that. It does seem he is on an upward trajectory and I would wager that that continues in his college career under the guidance of Greg Brown and his staff at BC.

Moreover, I feel as though later first round selections as often misunderstood. In your standard draft class, the value’s first pronounced dropoff usually tends to be in/just after the middle portion of the first round, not after it or after the second round. This class is no exception, as the mass consciousness more or less has accepted that it will likely decline around the 14th mark. As such, with the strike rate being what it is, I would go as far as to say that a very solid player moving in a good direction and having a chance to get even better in NCAA is easy value for a late first round pick. Indeed, going to a school where he’ll have the familiarity of Hagens and Will Skahan playing alongside of him and a strong culture built upon US NTDP products generally will almost assuredly help him either achieve his ceiling or continue to grow it. The chemistry between him and Hagens in Hockey East will likely serve both well/should be kept intact at this next level as they prep for their pro futures, keeping in line with the Perreault/Smith/Leonard combo. All of this is to say that just the chance his college career might turn him into more means “Take him if he’s there” if you are choosing towards the end of day one.

That is not the unanimous opinion about Stiga, however. If you take a gander at the different rankings that are linked over on his EP, you will see him ranked anywhere from 18th to 68th. I have to say, from where I’m standing, I might be inclined to say the former would be a bit high, although there is a lot of interchangeability in this class outside a couple of names (some say even after Macklin Celebrini or Celebrini/Ivan Demidov) and it becomes especially pronounced once the quality generally falls off. However, the latter or anything close to it would be an absolute disgrace. I strongly believe that Stiga should, at minimum, go no later than the earliest phases of day two. However, in the most appropriate scenario, he won’t even be on the board on the second day. Hopefully, a team will recognize the strong potential that he has and pluck him up towards the end of the opening round, but if not, much credit to whichever organization gets a very good dark horse steal in the subsequent rounds.