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Calgary Flames: How To Build A New Foundation

               The 2023-24 season was the second consecutive disappointing season for the Calgary Flames. In my analysis of their 2023 offseason, I highlighted the transition from Brad Treliving and Darryl Sutter to Craig Conroy and Ryan Huska as a sign of optimism for the Flames to move forward from an underwhelming 2022-23 campaign that saw the Johnathan Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar for Matthew Tkachuk yield a disastrous return. Unfortunately for the Alberta faithful, the change in coaching not only failed to right the ship from the 2022-23 season but saw the team regress from accumulating 93 standings points down to a much less impressive 81. Conroy began selling at the 2024 trade deadline, effectively throwing in the towel on the Huska era before the end of its first full season. Notable midseason trade departures were Elias Lindholm, Noah Hanifin, Nikita Zadorov, and Chris Tanev.

               Looking at the returns that Conroy received in trading four of Calgary’s prime-aged and veteran core pieces, some of the most notable were: Hunter Brzustewicz, Andrei Kuzmenko, Jacob Battaglia*, and Daniil Miromanov in addition to a handful of future draft picks including the Vegas Golden Knights’ 2025 First Round selection. In immediacy, Kuzmenko posted a SPAR of +4.8 last season split between Vancouver and Calgary making him the most valuable piece (In the short term) that Calgary acquired at the deadline. Brzustewicz, based on hockey prospecting’s model has a 59% chance of being an NHLer for the Flames, and after completing a 92-point campaign for the Kitchener Rangers, he could see prominent minutes in the AHL for the Wranglers this season, with some potential for a cup of tea with the Flames. Battaglia (*Drafted with 2nd round pick from Tanev trade) posted 65 points for the Kingston Frontenacs this past season and is comparable to Calle Jarnkrok at this point in his development, indicating that he could be a capable middle-six scorer for the Flames by 2026-27.

               Moving to the offseason, the Flames made a big splash trading incumbent starting goalie and former Vezina finalist Jacob Markstrom to the New Jersey Devils for Kevin Bahl and a 2025 First Round Pick. Markstrom, at his peak during the 2021-22 season, posted a GPS of 12.4 and a GSAA of +26.4; however, during his last campaign for Calgary, those numbers had regressed to a (respectable) 8.2 GPS against a +2.3 GSAA. With that in mind, acquiring Bahl and a future 1st for a goalie who has been regressing toward the league average is a respectable return. Bahl averaged 17+ minutes per game for the Devils during the 2023-24 season, while being an above average contributor posting a +5.5 Offensive GAR and a +5.1 Defensive GAR, despite being deployed at 43% Offensive zone start rate. Bahl will add a strong two-way presence for Calgary’s bottom-six to replace the recently departed Zadorov. Conroy made a handful of signings over the course of free agency, headlined by veterans such as Anthony Mantha, Ryan Lomberg and Jake Bean. Mantha is the most notable among them on a 1 year $3.5 million deal. Mantha’s career has been a series of highs-and-lows that have been seemingly unpredictable. He is joining the Flames coming from a season where he scored at a pace of 0.59 PPG split between Vegas and Washington with a corresponding SPAR of +5.6, the highest relative value of his career. If Mantha can sustain his impact from a year ago, he could be a prominent top-six contributor for the Flames, and potentially net them a top-64 selection in the 2025 NHL draft at the trade deadline. Lomberg will add leadership and experience to Calgary’s fourth line but is otherwise a low-impact replacement level scorer and defender. Bean will likely figure to be a low-impact third pairing defender for the Flames this season if his career trajectory continues in a linear manner.

               In terms of the long-term future of the team, Conroy and his scouting team had a phenomenal draft with a haul headlined by Zayne Parekh, Matvei Gridin, Andrew Basha, and Jacob Battaglia. Parekh posted 96 points in 66 games for the Memorial Cup Champion Saginaw Spirit in his draft year, clearly highlighting him as the top OFD in the class of 2024. Our team was high on Parekh all season, and during our live coverage of the draft. I would be flabbergasted if he was not a fringe-elite top pairing defenseman for the Flames by the conclusion of the 2026-27 campaign. Gridin posted 83 points in 60 games for the Muskegon Lumberjacks, and based on his tape could be a less-impactful Elias Lindholm-type player with one-touch playmaking in scoring from high-danger areas playing in a bottom or middle-six role down the road. Basha recorded 85 points in 63 games for the Medicine Hat Tigers and is the most interesting pick of Calgary’s first four selections. Basha is a dynamic winger who plays a reckless attacking game. If he plays another year in the WHL, it is unlikely we will get a better glimpse of his growth, but once he sees AHL or NHL defenses for the first time, his ability to adapt will quickly indicate whether he’ll become a star or bust at the top level of hockey. An honorable mention goes to Luke Misa of the Mississauga/Brampton Steelheads of the OHL, selected in round five in a fortuitous fall. The centerman tallied 81 points in 66 games in the regular season this year and is a solid playmaker with a great motor that goes two ways and exceptional athleticism, with perhaps yet more potential to be tapped into. Our EIC Liam regarded Misa as one of the second day’s best selections. It should be intriguing to see how he grows when returning to the Steelheads this coming year, perhaps continuing to build himself up by playing and developing further chemistry alongside RW/2025 top prospect Porter Martone, who will be poised to have a big season and show visible further steps in his DY and with whom Misa already plays off very well.

               Overall, the Flames had a good offseason for a team that is starting to rebuild. The most important players to watch this season will be their prospects mentioned in the last paragraph as well as a handful of recent high selections. Jakob Pelletier’s deployment between the NHL and AHL saw him build confidence with the Wranglers last season, but at this point, a 30+ point campaign with some sheltered NHL minutes seems like a must to keep him developing into a legitimate first liner in the league. Samuel Honzek will be heavily watched with the Wranglers, as he could eventually replace Nazem Kadri as a prominent shutdown third-line center if developed correctly. The last prospect to look at is Matt Coronato, who had a great season with the Wranglers last season and could learn a lot from playing with Mantha who has a similar shoot-first playing style that has been successful at times in the NHL. The Calgary Flames get a B for their offseason, and it could eventually be upgraded to an A if their prospect development and coaching yields the best possible outcomes for the eight aforementioned players.

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One response to “Calgary Flames: How To Build A New Foundation”

  1. […] for a D Kevin Bahl and a 2025 first rounder with a top 10 protection. As Christian covered, Markstrom has been posting regressing results, and Sean Gentille of The Athletic notes that Markstrom is generally volatile and not a […]

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