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Montreal Canadiens: The Mark Bellhorn of NHL rebuilds

Remember Mark Bellhorn’s short stint with the Boston Red Sox? He would drive the Fenway Faithful mad with his tendency to take an exorbitant number of pitches due to embodying, to an almost monk-like extent, patience at the plate. Sometimes, it would come back to bite him. Quite often, in fact. He led the AL in strikeouts with 177 in the 2004 season due to that tendency, but it also helped with him acquiring walks, demonstrated by his 88 BBs that same year, which was good for third best, and his keen eye and great swing gave him respectable home run totals, some of those coming in the clutch to help end the Curse of the Bambino. Where am I going with this analogy involving a near-forgotten (unless you’re from our area of operation and remember those days viscerally) MLB second baseman who had his fifteen minutes of fame basically twenty years ago for embodying a more conscientious version of the Adam Dunn/Matt Stairs (or, for you newheads, Kyle Schwarber, kinda) archetype just well enough to be a factor in the Red Sox winning their first championship in 86 years? You could say that that’s effectively been the Kent Hughes’ regime’s approach in Montreal to getting this team to contender status again, or at least, it’s demonstrable this summer. The Habs have been biding their time the last few years, making picks that they find to be good supplements to their existing prospect pool (to questionable results, at times), but it looks like they are taking a more ambitious route this summer. How effective will it be? Will they be hitting clutch homers (someone has to since the Expos, coincidentally having moved in 2004, aren’t around anymore to do it themselves) in pursuit of ending their own championship drought? Let’s examine and make some determinations.

We’ll have to start off with trades, since there’s a decent amount to discuss there and it’s certainly a hot topic for them right now. First, though, we’ll have to begin with an older and slightly less exciting transaction. The day before the free agency period began, D Johnathan Kovacevic was shipped out to New Jersey in exchange for a fourth round pick in 2026. While this is one of the additions for the Devils that I was high on (I think their offseason has been a little overrated, but more on that when they get their own article), I don’t think it was a loss for the Canadiens, either. As the Hockey News article on the deal points out, Kovacevic has some offensive upside to provide on the bottom pair and some good underlying data (seen in his JFresh card within that piece), as well as PK prowess and hitting and shot blocking. That said, it makes sense for the Habs, as they emphasize the youth contingent on the back end, to clear out a spot occupied by a 27-year-old whose contract is set to expire next summer. Additionally, the pick (which is respectable value for a third pairing blue liner) that they receive will be the highest of the three selections that New Jersey holds, which is a good condition to have negotiated and means it’ll be in pretty solid positioning in the middle rounds of the draft. This is definitely a trade that makes sense on both ends.

Now there’s the big name one, wherein we saw the Columbus Blue Jackets deal LW Patrik Laine and a 2026 second rounder to Montreal in exchange for 24-year-old D Jordan Harris. There isn’t much I can say that hasn’t been said already, but hopefully, I can provide some additional context that not too many people have seen. Harris was basically another, though slightly younger, odd-man out in the defensive corps for the Habs. He has plenty to provide in all three zones in the bottom four and likely has a good career ahead of him (see Rono’s card for more analysis), but was relatively expendable when considering the potential of their other young defensemen. Additionally, I mean, what needs to be said about Laine’s upside? He has flourished as a goal scorer who successfully hits perimeter shots as if he were hockey’s Ray Allen or Stephen Curry and some points in time, when we’ve seen him at his best, have even shown that his defensive capabilities aren’t bad, either. Plus, situationally, he is versatile: While you definitely think “Ideal power play trigger man” with him, just look at his 5v5 relative goal share. Isn’t that insane? We have to question which version of Patrik Laine that we see to an extent, though absolutely through no fault of his own. His injury woes and his personal battles which resulted him entering the Player Assistance Program are nothing that require looking for forgiveness or weariness. We do have to question whether or not we’ll see him at his best, but the best is a version of him we’ve seen before rather than something we need to look to hypotheticals or abstractions for or hope he’ll put in work to do, and if he’s even 75% of that player, he will be helping Montreal greatly in the short term. Even if he doesn’t pan out, they’ll be letting him walk in a couple of years without having their plans altered significantly. Based off of potential, though, this looks like a great add and a fantastic exploitation of a team that needed to get money off of the books and have a new general manager leading a team through a transitional phase.

The one thing I will say about this deal is that, while the money situation works long-term as many have been saying, there are some temporary worries. As capologist Jean-Francois C. on X points out, this puts Montreal $437k over the cap at the moment. While this can be alleviated before the season launches (and not that it matters much given the lack of short-term aspirations for success), the most likely outcome is them not being able to run a 23-man roster during the year, as they will probably hold out on placing G Carey Price (whose career is effectively over as is common knowledge at this point) on LTIR for as long as possible. Playing effectively short-handed and close up does run a risk to some of the names on the roster for being overworked or injured, which might be bad if it’s one of the guys whose development is very important. That said, if the books are tight but the team’s most essential pieces remain healthy throughout the year, then that’s quite alright. It’s important to remember that, while Laine is definitely a player who could improve their competitive standing very quickly, this is another year where competitive expectations are low. The course of events just needs to be more positive than negative in terms of forward movement for the organization as a whole.

Now we can discuss the most important extensions signed by the younger faces in the organization. The first up is 2022 first overall selection LW/RW Juraj Slafkovsky, who was signed to an eight-year, $60.8 million deal. His jump up in his sophomore season is well recognized and can be seen in a few different aspects of his statistical profile. However, it still doesn’t bode very well, considering the rarity with which players who had as poor of a D+1 season he did become star producers after having a similar uptick in their D+2 year. It might have even been a mistake to even have him play in the NHL in 2022-23 and while it may or may not be a make or break, it did serve as a potential disruption to what should have been a delicate process. It has been pointed out that putting him with C Nick Suzuki and LW Cole Caufield helped him out, but as my colleague Christian once noted on the pod, and I have separately in more detail in conversations with other creators, Rafael Harvey-Pinard did well in that configuration, as well, and he was subsequently demoted to the fourth line, has not done anything of note since, and been derailed by injury. While that is not to say that that is Slaf’s future or even his floor, it shows that doing well on that line is not definitively indicative of future success, either. This is a banking on potential, I get it, but it may end up being a reckless one. We can only say for sure when his dev years are finished, however.

D Justin Barron was given a two-year deal with a $1.15 million per-season cap hit. I think I agree with Justin Blades of Habs Eyes on the Prize’s assessment here: His offensive productivity has been good enough to justify keeping him, but there is increased competition for ideal spots in the defensive pairings so giving him a prove-it/bridge deal is the right call. It provides some flexibility for what might happen, while recognizing what currently stands as a good option. D Arber Xhekaj was retained on a two-year deal with a $1.3M AAV. I get the appeal for roster depth, he has some offensive upside and can hit and galvanize the team’s energy with fighting. Let’s look at the downsides with him, though: As Brian Boucher once noted during a broadcast, he’s still very green when it comes to 1v1 defensive situations and it shows in the results. JFresh also points out that he takes minor penalties at a higher clip than anyone, which is an inherent liability. Additionally, I think it’s more of an anchor to team performance than an asset to have a defenseman serve as an enforcer. There are fewer guys on the rear than in the forwards and the remaining handful are just going to have to work harder while you serve your five minute major. Let us also note that he’s had a season ending injury two years in a row, which isn’t good for his trajectory. His warts, some of which may be temporary, aside, however, the money is more than fair for what he already brings and what he can become. Hughes wasn’t reckless here at all and it may pay off quite well, even if it isn’t to the degree that Xhekaj’s most ardent supporters proclaim. D Kaiden Guhle was also signed to a six-year, $33.3 million extension. The underlying numbers are probably a good indicator of what sort of player that he’ll blossom into: Not the most amazing offensive results, but some contributions to make, and reliability by way of cardio and shutdown/physical capabilities. The terms aren’t bad, either, in the $$$$$ respect. It’s a long-term yet relatively low risk investment.

On to the draft, Hughes, director of amateur scouting and player personnel Martin Lapointe, and the Habs’ draft room, after raising some eyebrows the last couple of years, put in a performance that was pretty well respected by hockey voices. F Ivan Demidov of SKA Saint Petersburg’s system was their selection at fifth overall. Demidov has ascended to the point in the Byron Bader model that has never been a bust in the NHL, compared to the likes of Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, etc. via his fantastic productivity in the MHL, which he has registered 122 points in 71 games in the last two seasons. He’s basically proven everything he can in the junior league and now has to take this time to prove he can hack it in the pros, which he has yet to do as he has not had much staying power there, playing just 6 games in the KHL and 1 in the VHL to this point. This is likely due to a combination of factors such as certain methods of attacking not being pro-compatible (though that is definitely something that can be and, judging by his pre-season tape, is being coached out), as well as lacking in contact balance that is good enough for the pros, at least so far. The skill level with the puck is clearly there and he’s done everything he can possibly do in his age class with it, but needs to take the next step and do what SKA effectively wants all their prospects to do before they take their talents to North America: Establish themselves as a strong presence in the KHL. However, in the final season of his contract, SKA seems to be confident in him, giving him an alternate captaincy with the big club in the preseason. Due to this being the last year of his deal, he can’t be loaned out and it seems they’ve shown belief in him going into this year, so now we’ll know for sure just what steps he’s taken. The Habs additionally took C Michael Hage at 21st overall. Hage spent last season with the Chicago Steel for his first and only *full* season in the USHL last year (he played 13 games in which he registered 5 goals and 5 assists in 2022-23), racking up 33 goals and 42 assists in 54 games. Him being an A>G player makes sense with playmaking being his best attribute, but his goal scoring touch isn’t bad at all either due to his perceptiveness and off-the-puck offensive capabilities and his two-way motor serves him well, too. He should be impactful at the University of Michigan this coming season. The Canadiens made eight additional selections, most notably C Aatos Koivu (son of former team captain Saku, currently plays in TPS’s ranks in Liiga) and LW Logan Sawyer (BCHL – Brooks Bandits, attending Providence College) with their next two selections at 70th and 78th overall, but these first two picks were the highlights, as is well recognized.

The Habs pulled off something of a middle ground between aggression and patience this summer and it seems like they are gonna be able to pull it off successfully. Their draft, while maybe providing some trepidation, was much better than it has been the last two seasons, and they made largely very good short- and long-term deals. I am still kind of questioning what the identity of this team is, however. The fluidity that Martin St. Louis’ system encourages makes plenty of sense for the top guys and he applies it to them while adhering to the mindset that it can’t be applied that way uniformly for everyone. Therefore, he wisely insists upon tightness for the lower parts of the roster, particularly defensively (perhaps taking some cues from Rod Brind’amour, without taking it to that extent). With that in mind, though, as well as the expectation that a large enough amount of the roster has to buy into that defensive system for it to fully work (including top guys), I think the roster construction has some work that still needs to be done long-term (or at least, there needs to be more names in the system/pipeline that lend themselves to that). Ironically enough, contrary to what some may think, the addition of Laine is not a detriment to that aspiration. However, I would wager that there are at least a few more players of that archetype that need to be added to the system. It is perhaps unfortunate that Cayden Lindstrom was drafted one spot ahead of Demidov, because he perhaps would’ve made more sense than Demidov, despite the latter’s higher offensive ceiling (not that Lindstrom can’t be a very productive NHL player, especially considering the attributes he possesses physically and his playing style), for Montreal’s aims. With all of that in mind, I will give Montreal a A- for their activities this summer. I have some minor quibbles here and there, but I am more impressed than not by the Kent Hughes plan, perhaps for the first time ever.

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