[Editor in chief/author’s note: Publication of this article had to be delayed twice. First, we placed a temporary halt on publishing any material pertaining to the standard news cycle in the current NHL due to the Gaudreau tragedy. It was deferred again due to the passing of Pavel and Valeri Bure’s father, Vladimir. Needless to say, we at Black Stitch Hockey were devastated by both events and extend our sincerest condolences to all affected parties. This is a tremendously difficult time and we express our solidarity with all those who are hurting currently.]
Now that our schedule has been restored to the status quo, this unique contract can be provided with analysis. Quite a few eyebrows were raised by this contract and I think it’s worth taking the time to educate people on the fine print, as well as look at its merits.
The player:
C Seth Jarvis
The team:
Carolina Hurricanes
The terms:
Eight years, $63.2 million, deferred payments on signing bonuses until July 1st, 2032
The technicalities:
“Jarvis #Canes 8 year $7.42M Cap Hit:
Yr 1 $2M Base & $7.233M Signing Bonus
Yr 2 6M & 3.41M SB
Yr 3 4.25M & 4M SB
Yr 4 6.57M
Yr 5 6.57M
Yr 6 6.57M
Yr 7 1M & 5.187M SB
Yr 8 1M & 5.57M SB
Amounts above include the present value of all deferred compensation. 15.67M Total is deferred across multiple seasons until July 1, 2032 (1 day after contract expires)
Rep’d by Gerry Johannson TSC
Signing & deferral 1st reported by @frank_seravalli
Actual cap hit 1st reported by @reporterchris“
Capologist and CBA expert @Mtlfansakic explains it further in this thread, noting first that the AAV only counts the current value of the money without the interest and the cap hit is lowered because of the deferred money. He also notes that Arizona did this with Shane Doan in 2016 to lower the salary in one year (read this thread for a further breakdown of that scenario) and that Vegas attempted it with Jonathan Marchessault but were denied, but this is a very unusual occurrence despite being permitted by the CBA. The Canes are getting a somewhat slight discount here, with the cap hit noted as being lowered to $7.42M from $7.9M by Chris Johnston in the tweet linked within the above quotation of the PuckPedia thread. It’s an impressive machination nevertheless, however, as getting a player and his agent to agree to this is an uphill battle.
What is Seth Jarvis’ value on the ice? His analytics indicate that he is very complete in many areas. Having played three full years in the NHL, the former Portland Winterhawk and Carolina’s selection at 13th overall in 2020 took a dip in both his productivity (going from 0.58 PPG to 0.47) and his overall statistical profile (as demonstrated in the graph above) from his rookie campaign to his sophomore season. This past year, though, was an emphatic statement, as his WAR percentiles skyrocketed and he tallied 67 points (33g-34a) in 81 games, good for a career best PPG of 0.827. The Hurricanes, led by newly promoted GM Eric Tulsky, a brilliant analytical mind, clearly see the rise he is on and see the smart investment to make here. With his combo of a strong work rate and a good skill set, I think we’re going to see him live up to this deal.
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