The Tampa Bay Lightning were driven largely last year by RW Nikita Kucherov having a historic campaign, wherein he set a record for most assists by a winger in a single season, as well as the most points by a Russian player in NHL history (100 and 144, respectively). The modern day legend took what could have been a lottery team to the postseason (with some fortune on their side with Eastern Conference results elsewhere on the bubble falling their way in the final stretch); however, they were defeated in five games by rivals and eventual Stanley Cup champions the Florida Panthers in round one. General manager Julien BriseBois and the front office were headed towards uncertain territory due to their cap situation and what choices it might necessitate. Let us examine how this navigation transpired. In a manner akin to Christian’s analysis of Vancouver’s offseason, which was published yesterday and you can read here, this article will skip Tampa’s draft, as their lack of any selections in the first three rounds or the top 100 provides us with a dearth of meaningful takeaways.

The primary aim during the summer was to clear cap space to allow forward and franchise icon Steven Stamkos to stay. In tandem with this, the team traded D Mikhail Sergachev to Utah Hockey Club in exchange for C Conor Geekie, D J.J. Moser, a seventh rounder in 2024 and a second round selection in 2025. In a vacuum, this return isn’t awful, considering Geekie has high-end middle-six C potential in the NHL and Moser has been an impact player for the Coyotes (RIP) in the past despite a career-worst campaign last year from the Swiss blueliner. Additionally, the depth in next year’s draft class means either a potential steal with that selection or the pick being highly valued as a trade piece by another club. With that said, however, a healthy Sergachev and one that may be less burdened next season will make this a difficult move to have to deal with for Tampa Bay, particularly knowing the reliability he had for them in his effective 2D role. The Lightning also traded LW Tanner Jeannot to the Los Angeles Kings in exchange for pick #118 in 2024’s fourth round and a second round selection in 2025. The Bolts basically sold the farm to acquire Jeannot from Nashville in February 2023 and have already moved on from him in the summer of 2024 to a pretty underwhelming return (though an anticipated one due to him never producing anything close to the results that he did with the Predators as a rookie), especially comparatively speaking, but they had the right idea successfully shedding the cap of who was regarded the most likely trade candidate and beginning to regain some lost draft stock. Nevertheless, despite these efforts, the Lightning were not able to keep Stamkos within their organization, as he departed for a Predators team who have quickly pivoted from their original rebuilding intentions to go all-in on their unexpected competitive window (see: here, here, and here). However, one matter which did turn out well for the Lightning was the Jake Guentzel acquisition. The team first acquired his negotiating rights by trading the the Hurricanes a third-round pick in 2025 just prior to the UFA window and in short order inked the Nebraska native to a seven-year, $63 million deal. While the Hurricanes had a strong top six of their own, Guentzel’s run last season in Raleigh (wherein he registered a combined 34 points in 28 regular season + playoff games) demonstrated that he was not reliant upon Sidney Crosby for productivity during his time in Pittsburgh. He will have much to offer to the Lightning forward group and perhaps provides the Bolts with their most compelling narrative this coming season. A transaction I was less fond of was the acquisition of RW Cam Atkinson (one year, $900k), who, after missing the 2022-23 season in its entirety due to injuries/surgery recovery, struggled with the Philadelphia Flyers last season and was ultimately bought out (effectively opening the gate for him to be replaced by Matvei Michkov in the lineup). The once-effective scorer (for instance, leader of the 2018-19 Columbus Blue Jackets, a team that were regarded as upstarts prior to sweeping the historic Lightning squad from that year in round one but were actually quite talented in their own right, in goals by a significant margin – His 41 led second-place Artemi Panarin by 13) registered just 13 goals and 15 assists in 70 games played in 2023-24 and went through the longest goal drought of his career. Much can additionally be cited about his negative impact on xG figures, with one effective way of contextualizing it being the examination of Philadelphia’s clear best defenseman last year (apologies, Travis Sanheim fans), Cam York, visibly doing much better without Atkinson than with him. It’s possible that Atkinson may bounce back with a change of scenery and a year’s removal from the physical issues that plagued him, but with him just having turned 35 this summer and being an undersized player dependent upon speed that appears quickly disappearing and skill, it’s also very possible that his door has already closed. The Lightning additionally bid farewell to some depth pieces, including LW Anthony Duclair (whose potential value to his new club, the New York Islanders, I covered here) and D Mathew Dumba via free agency, while also welcoming in one-time meme/DZS monger F Zemgus Girgensons on a three-year deal with an AAV of $850k. Ultimately, the team had a bit more worth outgoing than incoming in that respect.

Ultimately, this was an offseason of painful goodbyes for the Lightning, a key one of which they tried to prevent but were not able to. That said, their high-end talent is still quite good, and will be served well by the Guentzel addition. A full season of a healthier Andrei Vasilevskiy between the pipes may also serve them well now that his hips have had more of time to recover. I am quite curious to see what this team ultimately ends up looking like in terms of on-ice performance. They aren’t the most amazing in depth, but will be a nuisance to play against via their top-heaviness. Ultimately, though, I am going to give them a C+. Guentzel was a fantastic acquisition and some of the other yields via their trade activity weren’t bad, but the machinations that BriseBois attempted to pull off came up just short too many times for me to give a much higher grade than average and while there aren’t many strings attached, I am not keen on the Atkinson signing due to the question marks that surround him at best/his potential status as outright damaged goods at worst. The team may be competitive this year, but this just wasn’t a very good summer from a maneuvering standpoint.