On June 22^nd, the Seattle Kraken and Chicago Blackhawks made an interesting trade exchanging veteran winger Andre Burakovsky for prime-aged center Joe Veleno. On name value alone, this appears to be a massive victory for the Chicago Blackhawks, but let’s look at the analytics buried beneath the names to understand this deal better. On the surface, Seattle got the first small victory in this deal as they will save $3.225M AAV with Veleno’s contract, which will give them more flexibility to tweak their roster than they had before the trade. Chicago, on the other hand, has a plethora of cap space, and this brings their cap space pool to a meager $29M or so.

               For Chicago, the biggest question on the other side of this trade is: which version of Burakovsky are we going to see in a Blackhawks jersey? In his three seasons in Colorado, he consistently posted a 5v5 P/60 of 2.5+ with GARs of 5.3, 10.2, and 11.7 in his three seasons there as a strong scoring contributor. In Seattle, his 5v5 P60s were less impressive and consistent at rates of 2.0, 0.7, and 1.7 with corresponding GARs of 0.3, -3.0, and 4.9. In in a blind lottery of his last six seasons, there is an equal probability Burakovsky can be a top line star level impact player or a valuable second liner, with a slim chance of him being invisible or a downright detriment to the team. Jeff Blashill will be a crucial factor in determining which version of Burakovsky the Blackhawks got.

               For Seattle, it’s clear that their front office is still riding high from the Kaapo Kakko reclamation experiment (He just need more minutes). Veleno joins his third team at the age of 25 after being unable to translate his dynamic scoring from Drummondville to the pro game. Through his first four NHL seasons, Veleno’s P/60 5v5 has hovered slightly above 1.0. His GAR in that span has also been volatile with outputs of -3.1, 3.4, 3.3, and -3.2 in those four full seasons. At this point in his career, Veleno is effective in a 4^th line role, but seemingly lacks the scoring upside and offensive instinct to not struggle in a 3^rd line capacity. Despite this criticism, Lane Lambert, just like Blashill, will be pivotal in helping Veleno become a decent and consistent contributor at the NHL level.

               Overall, the Blackhawks did come out on top in this trade before either player has suited up for their new teams. The reasoning being that both players’ low points at this point are similar, and Veleno’s have been more likely outcomes in the last four seasons. Despite the inherent risk with Burakovsky’s inconsistency, his median contribution(s) in a six-year sample size are greater than Veleno’s best. We’ll see how it all shakes out in the next season for sure.