Much like last year’s version (which was limited to just North American prospects), this is less predictive and more qualitative. In other words, this is not so much a projection of how I think things will go so much as how I rank the best prospects in this class. I won’t get too caught up in an introduction or analysis of how I feel about the class as a whole. I really just want to get into the meat of this. Let’s have at it.

1.) D Matthew Schaefer (OHL – Erie Otters)

He spent his D-1 and DY as an extremely young presence in the O as a very late birthday for his NHL draft class after being taken first overall in the OHL Priority Selection in 2023. Cumulatively, he has 39 points in 73 regular season games in his OHL career, with a +19. His sample size was small this year due to a broken clavicle suffered in the WJC and missing the first nine games of the season with mononucleosis; however, what we have has been nothing short of breathtaking.

Fitting in perfectly with the archetype of a standout defenseman in today’s NHL, Schaefer has four-way mobility and is a possession demon. As noted by Mitch L. Brown in his microstat card, he additionally possesses exceptional transition abilities, be it by way of controlled or uncontrolled entries and exits. His shot mechanics and IQ are both exceptionally high for a defenseman, especially at his age, and he seems to have a sixth sense for the best passing plays. Combine that with an incredible sense of timing and a keen eye for the best lanes and he is a lethal presence in the OZ. He also is phenomenal at stopping potential opposing rushes and zone entries using his skating ability and timing. Schaefer additionally is useful in the most impactful as a special teams player, being someone you can use on your top penalty killing unit and as the QB of PP1. With such a well-rounded profile, the Miro Heiskanen comps make all the sense in the world. It seems outlandish to say, but I can imagine him playing in the NHL full-time in his D+1.

2.) C/LW Michael Misa (OHL – Saginaw Spirit)

I’ve been beating the drum for him for a long time, so you can read my article on him as an individual here to recap his early accomplishments. Since then, Misa had a lower PPG in his D-1 as it dropped to 1.119 (75 points in 67 games) due to lower utilization as the team had acquired a handful of veteran forwards to aid them at the Memorial Cup, but played his depth role well, became more well-rounded, and helped Saginaw win the Mem Cup as hosts. This past season, he led the entire CHL in points with 134, driven largely by his as announcing himself as an elite goal scorer with 62 in 65 games. Cumulatively, Misa enters his draft with 265 points and a +55 in 177 regular season games played in the OHL – A considerable amount of experience and an impressive acumen for someone his age, owed to his deserved reception of exceptional player status.

There really isn’t a single weakness in Misa’s microstat profile and he excels both as a transition demon offensively and an offensive zone threat. He has tremendous speed and shows flashes of tremendous skill, but primarily beats teams by way of being clinical and just so dang good at the fundamentals. If Tim Duncan had an equivalent as an NHL prospect, it’d probably be him. He has evolved into a pure goal scorer and has accomplished some historic feats in the context of the OHL. He is outstanding at retrievals and has obvious 1C potential in the NHL due to both his offensive prowess and his overall game. As a hybrid, in my eyes, of John Tavares and Evgeni Malkin, he makes all the sense in the world as the first forward to take in this draft.

3.) C Caleb Desnoyers (QMJHL – Moncton Wildcats)

I have long been hesitant to really buy in on this prospect, but after the totality of the run that he had this season, I just couldn’t hold back anymore. Not only have I bought in, I have done so to effectively to the fullest extent. The younger brother of Elliot Desnoyers, a LW in the Philadelphia Flyers system, Caleb was trusted as the centerpiece for the Moncton Wildcats this season and played an essential role in the team winning both the Jean Rougeau Trophy as regular season champions in the Q and the Gilles-Courteau Trophy as playoff champs. In the regular season, he led the team in points by 17, with 84 in 56 games to St. Louis Blues prospect W/C Juraj Pekarcik’s 67 in 53. A brilliant passing player, this was driven by his 49 assists on the year. He additionally was tied with RW Alex Mercier for third-best plus-minus on the team at +51 (albeit Mercier compiled his in 64 games played). As one would anticipate, he was a demon (in the most complimentary way) in the postseason, with 9 goals and 21 assists in 19 games played as he captured the Guy Lafleur Trophy as QMJHL playoff MVP. He enters the draft with 140 points in 106 regular season games in his career in the Q.

The common player comps for Desnoyers are the likes of your archetypal two-way forwards such as Patrice Bergeron, Sean Couturier, and Jonathan Toews, as well as Phillip Danault (albeit with more offensive upside) and Mark Stone. These are not really aggressive comparisons, as I do find that his ceiling is tremendous, but the path for him to be good is actually broader than your typical TWF, I would wager. For one, his playmaking is so sublime that you have to wonder if his performance in that respect will be even better than projections suggest in the NHL. His performance in categories such as expected primary assists and advantages created are terrific in Mitch Brown’s model. He also has a 6’2″ frame to grow in and has impressive explosiveness and edge work as a skater. With these attributes, as well as productive experience as being the guy who an offense gets run through accumulated this very successful campaign, he will be a great addition to any franchise’s prospect pool.

4.) C James Hagens (NCAA – Boston College)

This is another example of a player I have believed in for a long time. You can read my early profile on him here. In the time since, Hagens has accomplished the following:

• Finished his D-1 campaign with the US NTDP with 102 points and a +43 in 58 games

• Set the record for most points at a single IIHF U18 World Championships with 22, earning tournament MVP, media all-star team, and forward of the tournament accolades as the US finished as silver medalists
• Won a gold medal at the 2024 WJC, at which he totaled 5 goals and 4 assists in 7 games played
• Recorded 37 points in 37 games played with the Boston College Eagles, with a +21, as he helped the team to a Hockey East regular season title

To me, the greatest strengths Hagens has are in the capacities that pertain to his abilities as a puck carrier and chance creator. Mitch Brown notes him as a terrific controlled entry and exit player, as well as a superb outside-in playmaker and advantage creator. He is very good at setting up his teammates for high danger looks. His numbers weren’t the flashiest this year as he took a back seat to the likes of Ryan Leonard (Washington Capitals) and Gabriel Perreault (New York Rangers) and the overall roster construction of the Eagles did not play to his strengths, while the top stars were also prone to playing “hero puck” a bit. However, I think the talent is quite obvious still, and I believe the scouting community and top-level hockey executives still recognize it. Player comps for Hagens include the likes of Matthew Barzal and Jack Hughes.

5.) RW Porter Martone (OHL – Brampton Steelheads)

One thing working in Martone’s favor as an older member of the class (born October 26th, 2006) is that, consequently, he has a significant amount of playing experience in his pocket already. He enters this draft having already played 178 career OHL regular season games. This certainly lends itself to having a high floor, but his ceiling isn’t too shabby, either. 204 points to his name in his career is more than respectable, driven by his playmaking ability via 115 assists, but he has proven to be a remarkable finisher, as well. 89 goals and some impressive between the legs moves to make some of them happen definitely bodes well, as he has demonstrated his scoring versatility by being a solid netfront player with some skill/flash, hands, and plenty of hockey IQ. In this respect, it makes sense that he has been compared frequently to Matthew Tkachuk.

When examining Martone’s microstats, it reflects the eye-test quite well. He is not a shot-first player but takes efficient attempts when he does use his shot (which can be quite a rocket) and he is outstanding at generating plays from the outside and setting up high danger looks. His strength on the puck has also yielded terrific results in transition-related metrics. Overall, he can drive play with the best of them and is the sort of winger you can run an offense through. I expect great things from him at the next level.

6.) LW Victor Eklund (HockeyAllsvenskan – Djurgårdens IF)

The first European on my list, Eklund had a terrific DY on the Allsvenskan champions. He recorded 19 goals and 12 assists and a +16 in 42 regular season games, then subsequently recorded 7 points in 16 playoff appearances. What sets him apart from his even more lauded teammate in the form of Anton Frondell (who absolutely has a place in the top of this class, as well, make no mistake) is that I view Eklund as the superior puck carrier and transition player (reinforced by Lassi Alanen’s findings in his data tracking). He also chooses his shots better and also sets himself apart by having terrific skating mechanics, explosiveness, and high level physical prowess that can make him difficult to budge and help him cause problems for opponents, particularly when using his intensity for retrievals and in puck battles. He is not a big kid, either, which has caused scouts for the likes of Neutral Zone and Daily Faceoff to compare him to Jesper Bratt. I strongly assert that he should be off the board early and will bolster almost any NHL team and aid their competitive aspirations.

7.) C Roger McQueen (WHL – Brandon Wheat Kings)

There was likely a point where this assertion would be considered ambitious and swinging on potential upside due to the health woes of the prospect involved. However, he now has a clean bill of health, and his initial injury assessment was a misdiagnosis. As such, you have to feel extremely confident about his future.

In the recent past, McQueen has won a gold medal at both the IIHF U18s and the Hlinka Gretzky Cup. He was limited to just 17 games played this past regular season, wherein he recorded 10 goals and 10 assists, but my, did he make an impression. I will try my best not to give too much of a peer behind the paywall for Mitch Brown’s tracking data (which I recommend any advanced stat buffs subscribe to the Patreon for). However, I do have to explicitly state that, over 102.6 minutes tracked of gameplay for McQueen, he has 99th percentiles in the following categories: xG/60, controlled entries/60, advantages created/60, and xG buildup/60. He also is in the high 90’s in several other categories. He brings a lot to the table in a way you would expect from a 6’5″ giant with phenomenal skating ability but additionally possesses fantastic hands and what basketball fans call a “bag.” He is also a remarkable shutdown player, and I feel has earned his comparisons to Quinton Byfield but may even have a better future in the NHL ahead of him. A fully healthy McQueen is going to be a thrill to watch and make waves in the pros.

8.) C Cole Reschny (WHL – Victoria Royals, committed to the University of North Dakota)

The prospect in question being taken in the top ten seems unlikely barring a massive reach given that he is not ranked higher than 14th in any major public rankings. However, having monitored his activity and his developmental arc non-stop over the last two seasons (see here for a blast from the past which was one of the most pivotal moments in our short history as a brand), I more than have time for anyone who shares in my bold opinion that he is a top ten talent in the draft class. Just this season, he had a tremendous uptick in PPG once the calendar year changed, stayed hot during the postseason, and finished his campaign off (which already included being a tremendous asset to Team Canada during their successful Hlinka Gretzky run and scoring the series winning goal in the CHL/USA Prospects Challenge) with an IIHF U18s gold medal. His 66 assists during the WHL regular season were a Victoria Royals team record, as he more than lived up to the task of being the primary offensive facilitator for the team. Headed to the collegiate circuit next season thanks to the rule change enacted by the NCAA D1 Council, he ended his WHL career with 48 goals and 104 assists and a +37 in 127 regular season games, coupled with 10 goals and 17 assists and a +4 in 15 playoff games.

With my having scouted this player extensively (beyond the point that anyone should, truthfully), I can make my own calls here. His lack of foot speed isn’t a detriment due to the fact that he’s one of the most evasive players you will ever see (at his age, anyways) by virtue of his “body manipulation skills,” timing, and reads. Cam Robinson describes him as “one of the slipperiest dudes in this entire class” and I would certainly agree with that assessment. He is a beyond gifted playmaker blessed with both superb passing ability and vision/hockey IQ, is terrific on the draw, and phenomenal at re-securing possession of the puck and snuffing out potential attacking plays by the opposition. His head coach in Victoria, James Patrick, compared him to Ryan O’Reilly, and it’s certainly the sort of role I can easily see him playing in the NHL (other playing style comps that I have seen floated around that make sense include Zach Benson, Matt Coronato as noted in the previously linked Robinson tweet, and Bo Horvat). He will be a fairly late selection and the team that takes him will be playing the long game due to his commitment to play for the Fighting Hawks (where his Victoria teammate and top 2026 NHL Entry Draft prospect Keaton Verhoeff is also headed), but it will be a worthy investment with exceptional value.

9.) C Anton Frondell (HockeyAllsvenskan – Djurgårdens IF)

I won’t pretend I don’t have my critiques of the player in question’s overall game. I think his puck carrying abilities and transition play need some work, as well as the quality of his shot diet. However, a player with this statistical profile simply cannot be left out of the top ten. In Byron Bader’s model, forward prospects with Anton Frondell’s developmental arc production-wise have become star producers (0.7+ PPG) 89% of the time, while his chances based off of historical trends of being at least a 200 gamer in the NHL sit only at 99% due to the model capping off there. In other words, no player of this type in terms of pre-draft performance has ever busted in the NHL, and it is no small accomplishment to do what he has done in the pros (having recorded 25 points in 29 games in the Allsvenskan regular season this year, as well as 7 in 16 playoff games en route to a championship). He has plenty of strengths – His shot mechanics are phenomenal, he has good foot speed and acceleration, his dekes are a thing of beauty, he backchecks well and efficiently, and has a physical component to his game that he can tap into. The comparisons to his countryman Gabriel Landeskog make sense with all these factors considered. There is some question as to whether or not Frondell will meet his max star potential, but teams will inevitably like what they see enough to take him in the top ten.

10.) D Jackson Smith (WHL – Tri-City Americans, committed to Penn State University)

We conclude the top ten with a player with a terrific shot at being a legitimate TWD in the show, as well as another CHL-to-NCAA prospect. Neutral Zone likens Smith to “Brayden McNabb with the potential to evolve into […] Shea Theodore.” Some of his statistics that they get excited about include a 60% success rate in 50/50 puck battles [insert Steiner Math joke here], his 5.5 loose puck recoveries per game, his 11 takeaways per game, and his 90% pass completion rate (though they also note he does have his fair share of giveaways due to trouble with making decisions with the puck under pressure). The peaks of his microstat profile compiled by Mitch Brown include 100th percentile controlled exits/60 (representing his incredible transition prowess), as well as 99ths in cross-lane plays/60, advantages created/60, offensive involvement, and xG buildup/60. He is not afraid to play with an edge and yet possesses a terrific defensive IQ so his willingness to sacrifice the body is not a detriment. The odds of him being a star producer (0.45+ PPG per the Bader model’s standards for defensemen) are quite low at present, sitting at 26%, but he certainly can be a top pairing blueliner with the attributes he already possesses, to say nothing of the ways he can improve in his collegiate development, both by bulking up and improving some of his fine details in timing with the puck and with making high percentage offensive plays.

The best of the rest:

C Jake O’Brien (OHL – Brantford Bulldogs)

O’Brien has the smarts, the physical tools, and the playmaking ability of a high-end center in the NHL. He creates a lot of high percentage looks for his teammates by using his vision that seems to be applicable in any part of the ice as well as great situational awareness. This past season, he recorded 32 goals and 66 assists in 66 games played during Brantford’s regular season campaign. Currently, his star probability in the Bader model sits at 52% and his NHLer probability at 82%. The only thing that somewhat disappoints me about his game is that he seems reluctant to use what is a pretty impressive shot. Unlocking that dimension of his offensive mindset would probably catapult him to another level of potential for what he can be in the NHL.

C Brady Martin (OHL – Soo Greyhounds)

This right-handed center brings the intensity in every possible way, at max capacity, every shift, every night. He is also a microstat demon in addition to being an energy bomb of a forward – He is at least a 97th percentile player in each of the following categories: Expected primary assists per 60, slot passes per 60, controlled entries per 60, advantages created per 60, offensive involvement, and xG buildup/60. Martin had a respectable OHL DY with 72 points in 57 games played, but really announced himself at the U18s, recording 11 points and a +15 in 7 games, earning a tournament media all-star team selection. He may not be a “guy” on an NHL roster, but he certainly will have that “2K Takeover mode” switch that can change games and flip them on their head as he already does.

C/LW Carter Bear (WHL – Everett Silvertips)

Bear was an extremely safe bet in the early part of the season, as he was lauded for hi versatility and had an incredible start in terms of PPG (I mean, just look at this, homing in specifically on the early portion of the campaign). However, his productivity went into a sharp decline, and his season would eventually be ended prematurely by a catastrophic Achilles injury. In 10 games tracked by Mitch Brown, Bear was a 99th/100th percentile player in offensive zone retrievals/60, defensive plays/60, proactive contact/60, board battles won/60, and xG buildup per 60. At his peak condition, he is a Swiss army knife of a player. He serves as multiple versions of an offensive threat who both takes and creates high quality shots, shuts down the opposing team, has evasive skating ability and supreme contact balance, and is comfortable in all sorts of situations with regards to his positioning on the ice. We have to wonder now if we will still get the best version of him, but the chance of getting even 75% of him is one worth taking, at minimum, in or just after the first half of the first round.