No verbose intro this year. This is my third rodeo, and I think we know what the whole motivating philosophy behind this operation is by now. Let’s get right into it.

1.) LW/RW Ivar Stenberg (SHL, HC Frölunda)

Yep, immediately making plenty of people mad at me. Now, in full transparency, it is worth noting that, in Byron Bader’s model, Penn State’s Gavin McKenna (who will not be far behind, don’t worry) had a slightly better season in terms of NHLe at 55 vs. Stenberg’s 51. However, both are at the point in the model where prospects who have produced like this have never been busts in the NHL (AKA the point where, famously amongst the analytics and modeling nerd community, the worst player in the range is Phil Kessel, who was still a star producer in his NHL career). At this point, it becomes a matter of granular, contextual arguments. For my money, the SHL is the second-best league in the world. Stenberg recorded 33 points in 43 games in one of the most difficult leagues to score in, playing against grown men as a teenager. As demanding as NCAA D1’s style and environment are, this has to give him the edge.

I will say, I am more impressed by McKenna’s finishing and overall shooting ability and ability to find and create high danger spots/opportunities, and the narrow edge that he has over Stenberg in xG/60 in Mitchell Brown’s tracking data over that of Stenberg on Lassi Alanen’s card for him reflects this. However, Stenberg has comparable rates of generating expected primary assists and successful passes to the slot while playing in a more competitive environment. As a cerebral playmaker, I believe that playing in the NHL will only serve to make the advantage, however narrow it may be, that Stenberg has over McKenna better as he plays alongside better teammates as someone who is already excellent at elevating them. Let us also take into account that Stenberg has a significantly strong defensive component to his game by way of using his work rate to be excellent at retrievals and using his awareness to break up plays in the neutral zone. Comparable offense while being cultivated in a more challenging league and more defense makes him the slightly more impactful player than the consensus 1OA overall. Additionally, we got to see Stenberg achieve the pinnacle of U20 international success, winning a gold medal at the 2026 World Junior Championships in Minnesota with 10 points to his name in 7 games (credit will be given to McKenna for his own achievements there momentarily). This is a terrific addition to his acumen. In summary, I would agree with Hannah Stuart’s comparison of Stenberg to Lucas Raymond, though I similarly believe there are more dimensions to his game to be unlocked that will make him a better player overall.

2.) LW Gavin McKenna (NCAA, Penn State Nittany Lions)

The $700,000 man, after a slow start (being goalless in 11 of his first 15 games and pointless in 4 of those), had about as exemplary of a freshman season as you could ask for from the top recruit of his class nationwide. At 51 points in 35 games (with 36 assists entailing that he ultimately averaged over an assist a game), McKenna was fifth in the country in points and, at 1.46, was second behind only Quinnipiac’s Ethan Wyttenbach (Calgary Flames) in PPG. Credit should additionally be given to him for his strong bronze medal winning performance at the WJC, in which he recorded 14 points in 7 games, second behind only teammate Michael Hage (Montreal Canadiens).

I saw many of the same traits that carried McKenna to dominance in the WHL with the Medicine Hat Tigers replicated at the NCAA level. For as many dynamic qualities as he possesses, he is also just so phenomenal at the fundamentals that he can create his own time and space and take over shifts by seemingly being a step ahead in reading plays, situations, and formations at so many turns. This manifests both in transition and while in control of possession in the OZ, fittingly reflected by strong metrics in his Mitchell Brown card in cross-lane plays, board-to-middle plays, and advantages created. What is remarkable about his play in the NZ, as well, is he appears quite comfortable at conducting both controlled and uncontrolled entries and exits, making him a versatile threat. I am not without my critiques, though, of course, though there are only minor qualms that just barely keep him out of my number one spot (though I anticipate Toronto will take him there and he won’t have a disappointing career at all with these expectations on him, except perhaps in the eyes of the scrutinous Toronto hockey media). His ability to play through contact could be better and he could be better at winning puck battles and conducting successful retrievals, though his time with access to state of the art, NHL conditioning equipment will likely help him gain strength. Additionally, it should be noted that his point totals this season were inflated by an outlier performance against Ohio State, who are not exactly a hockey juggernaut, wherein he recorded 1 goal and 7 assists. His NHLe also did not grow this year in Bader’s model, as 55 was the same that he recorded in his D-1 with Medicine Hat – Though, of course, that is going from dominant to dominant. Alas, despite it all, McKenna is another sure thing in the NHL and will blow me away despite the small details keeping him away from being the top prospect in 2026 my eyes. In my eyes, the best comparison for McKenna is also the ultimate compliment I can give him, as he perhaps reminds me the most of one of my favorite players in the NHL, Nikita Kucherov (albeit with a splash of his primary influence, Patrick Kane). It is comforting to know he perceives himself in the same way.

3.) D Keaton Verhoeff (NCAA, University of North Dakota Fighting Hawks)

The moment that Verhoeff scored his fourth goal of the season with NoDak this year was significant. It entailed that he, as a defenseman with a similar build and certain reminiscent traits, scored more goals in his DY than 2021 first overall pick (Buffalo Sabres) Owen Power did in the same league/developmental environment in his own draft year at the University of Michigan. Ultimately, Verhoeff ended his freshman season, in which he was the fourth youngest player in the country and NCAA’s youngest defenseman, with 6 goals and 14 assists in 36 games played. While his shooting ability looks strong, I am additionally impressed by his skating and ability to lead the rush, as well as prevent plays going back the other way using that same speed and timing to cut plays off. As a 6’4″, 212 pound behemoth already, his ability to play through contact is already exemplary, and Mitchell Brown notes in Verhoeff’s card that his board battle winning ability was excellent this past season. He does have some warts, as I believe that the dominant zone exit creation ability he exhibited with Victoria in the WHL did not quite translate to the NCAA this year. Additionally, he could clean up some aspects of his offensive zone game, such as making efficient and effective passes to teammates more consistently. However, who is going to sneeze at a 6’4″ TWD with an already pretty full frame that skates well and is a wizard at creating space and leading rushes? Verhoeff will go high in this draft and his work will speak for itself. For a player comparison, I have to go Miro Heiskanen much like I did for Matthew Schaefer last year, but for different reasons. With Schaefer, I selected Heiskanen in the vein of them being an A grade in every important category. In this case, I see it more in the play pushing ability and cadences to his game that Verhoeff has. It’s not a perfect comp, but it is one that makes sense, and I also don’t think there’ll be many versions of what Verhoeff is in the future even if it is frequently looked for. I also have seen shades of Dougie Hamilton and Alex Pietrangelo over the course of his development.

4.) D Chase Reid (OHL, Soo Greyhounds – Committed to Michigan State)

Put simply, I look at the Chesterfield, MI native and see a defenseman without a single noteworthy weakness. He also possesses many dominant traits. Noteworthy 100th percentile tracked analytics that Reid has in his Mitch Brown card include xA1/60, controlled entries/60, advantages created/60, and xG buildup/60. This all fits in well with what I have seen from him throughout my time watching him in the O. He is simultaneously a strong, fast skater who can drive play and dominate in transition, all while being solid at puck protection. He possesses exceptional vision and situational awareness that he uses to create strong scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates, while also being adept at preventing penetration by opposing attackers. It is rare that I have confidence in defensemen to shoot a lot, but Reid has proven he can be trusted to overwhelm the net from the back-end in a high IQ way. It is this trait that manifested itself in 18 goals in 45 regular season games for Soo this past season. Right now, Zack Werenski seems to make sense as a comparison for him. I am expecting that he will become an even more dominant force with the Spartans, particularly in the area of physical growth and strength.

5.) C/RW Viggo Björck (SHL, Djurgårdens IF)
Björck earns this respect from me primarily by way of his tenacious defensive capabilities and work rate, though his productivity was respectable for someone who started the season in the J20 Nationell and did not turn 18 until right before the regular season’s end. His six goals and nine assists combined with phenomenal reliability at initiating and conducting forechecks, as well as breaking up opposing offensive plays (recording high metrics in both areas in Alanen’s data tracking model) demonstrates that he has become a very complete player. I wager that increased confidence, improved conditioning, and more reps at a high level will bring forward a more polished version of the highly talented offensive player, defined by his ability to conduct impressive end-to-end rushes, phenomenal stickhandling, and high offensive IQ (which is still apparent when he has the chance to open up the game for himself or when it opens up for him, particularly in the respect of finding high danger shooting spots) that we saw him be in the J18 and J20 levels. Björck additionally receives commendation from me for his contributions to Sweden’s gold medal campaign at the WJC, wherein he recorded 3 goals and 6 assists. A “brainier” version of Brayden Point seems to make sense as a comparison for the Swedish youngster, as he is more cerebral than instinctive, but possesses many similar traits.

6.) D Carson Carels (WHL, Prince George Cougars – Committed to University of North Dakota)

Carels falls in a similar category to Reid to me where I cannot find a source of major complaints. He is both a high volume and high effectiveness playmaker (achieving a 100 in the xA1/60 category in Brown’s model), a strong puck carrier who is phenomenal at controlled entries and exits, and terrific at generating dangerous plays (additionally holding a 100 in xG buildup/60). He never shies away from contact and lays the body well, yet does so in a way that rarely has him taking himself out of the play in the process, and his PIM total was not offensive for a kid who emphasizes physical play so greatly at just 66. Carels’ NHLe this year was 30 (via 73 points in 58 games), putting him at a 76% chance of being a star producer in the NHL and an 86% chance of being at least a 200 gamer in Bader’s Hockey Prospecting model. His ability to prevent zone entries stands out as his most impressive defensive trait. He looks like a safe pick and a translatable one, while having plenty of attributes that make him look appealing on the back end. Chris Peters’ comparison of Carels to Charlie McAvoy is the best one that I have seen, though I certainly understand the Jake Sanderson comparisons that frequently get made, including by Carels himself.

7.) C Tynan Lawrence (USHL, Muskegon Lumberjacks/NCAA, Boston University Terriers)

2025-26 was a tale of two seasons in a way for the Fredericton, New Brunswick native. Building off of a very strong, hype-generating D-1 with Muskegon in which he was not only a vital cog in their Clark Cup win but playoff MVP as a rookie, Lawrence first ran it back with them and recorded 10 goals and 7 assists in 13 games played. This was good for an NHLe of 34, placing his star probability at 53% and his NHLer probability at 81% in the Hockey Prospecting model. However, acclimating to NCAA when he made the jump was a bit of a different story, as Lawrence was thrown to the wolves in a tough Hockey East conference as part of BU’s significant youth contingent which had them as the youngest team in the country with an average age of just 19.6. He recorded just 2 goals and 5 assists in 18 games played, though certain components of his game still shined through, with metrics pertaining to successful transition plays/controlled zone exits, defensive plays/60, and space creation looking solid in his Mitch Brown profile. The productivity will likely come soon enough for the young center, who doesn’t turn 18 until August 3rd. Meanwhile, his overall profile looks pretty well-rounded. He routinely impresses me with his work rate, reads, speed, and agility. Sebastian Aho with better skating ability is who I would most likely compare him to when looking for an NHL parallel.

8.) LW Ethan Belchetz (OHL, Windsor Spitfires – Committed to Michigan State University)

The earliest views I had of Belchetz gave me a perspective of a kid who had tremendous physical gifts, but could be his own worst enemy by having tunnel vision and seemingly only being on the ice to shoot the puck and not do much of anything else. That got flipped on its head this season, as he was using his big frame in many different contexts, making more plays, and taking more efficient shots. Unsurprisingly, Mitch Brown’s card for him looks very strong in the xG/60 category, as well as off-puck assists/60 and on retrievals. His biggest statement in results was in his 34 goals in 54 regular season games this season. I think we will continue to see him grow into himself and make better use of his build and talents as he enters the Big 10 landscape in his D+1. Brady Tkachuk is who I see perhaps some of the strongest similarities to Belchetz’s game.

9.) D Daxon Rudolph (WHL, Prince Albert Raiders – Committed to University of Denver)

The historic campaign that Rudolph had not only etched him in the annals of Prince Albert Raiders lore, but made a number of important pronouncements about what kind of player he is. To me, this kid has “Future QB of a first power play unit in the NHL” written all over him already. He has elite shooting and skating ability with very impressive four-way mobility and is excellent at generating high danger chances (I was not surprised to see such strong analytics for xG/60 and xA1/60). He also is terrific at driving play, with his Mitch Brown card analyzing a strong propensity for controlled entries and exits. He could develop some better awareness in his own end, but his ability to prevent entries by the opposition using his skating and timing to cut opposing attackers off makes up for it for the timebeing. I am excited to see how he develops under the tutelage of David Carle and his staff, with the Pioneers coming off another national championship. Talking strictly NHLe, Rudolph attained a 27 this year via his 78 points in 68 games, which places him at a star probability of 55% and a star probability of 82%. Curiously, some of his draft year comps are among the players he reminds me of the most – Namely Adam Fox, Evan Bouchard, and perhaps most especially Lane Hutson. While he may not reach those heights, he certainly has many similar traits to this trio.

10.) C Caleb Malhotra (OHL, Brantford Bulldogs – Committed to Boston University)

As a second-generation NHL player to be as the son of Manny, most well-remembered for his time with the Vancouver Canucks, Malhotra certainly carries the weight of expectations on his shoulders. However, that did not seem to be a problem for him when making himself pop on his own merit in his DY. With Brantford this year, he racked up 29 goals and 55 assists in 67 regular season games played, as well as 13 goals and 13 assists in 15 postseason appearances. While his work rate impresses me and can lead to strong defensive efforts, I am primarily impressed by his playmaking, which was quite productive this season as noted. Brown gets into the granular details by observing that he looked quite strong in generating board-to-middle plays and creating advantages. While BU had a teeth cutting season this past year, I expect next season will be different, and I would not be surprised if this very translatable forward is a significant reason why. I see shades of Nick Suzuki and Patrice Bergeron in Malhotra’s game.

HMs:

LW/C J.P. Hurlbert (Kamloops Blazers – Committed to University of Michigan)
I definitely see some potential causes for concern here, as the US NTDP product has a somewhat limited tool kit and is the embodiment of a “shot first” player. However, what can’t be denied is that he is strong at using what he has to great results. Hurlbert is excellent at resisting contact and using his spatial awareness and hockey IQ to get to high danger shooting spots, then has the mechanics to make the most out of them. Correspondingly, the Texan had a terrific season in the Dub this year, recording 42 goals and 55 assists in 68 regular season games for Kamloops. At a certain point, there is a threshold of productivity where the flaws should at least be worried about a little less. Player comps for Hurlbert that make sense to me are Brock Boeser, and, for a major throwback, Mark Recchi.

D Xavier Villeneuve (QMJHL, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada – Committed to Boston University)

I mean, not for nothing, but he had a similar NHLe in his draft year to Bobby Orr.

I’m just kidding. I actually was raving to Christian, my fellow co-founder and our Chief Operating Officer, about how much I detest boiling down player comps to just raw NHLe. I’m looking at you, everyone who compared Anton Frondell to Aleksander Barkov. It is absolutely harebrained behavior, from where I am standing.

Anywho, I really see Villeneuve as a similar archetype to Chase Reid. No, his PPG was not world destroying, but I really don’t look at him and see a glaring weakness. Despite a small build, he is willing to initiate contact and does a fair amount in his own zone. This is on top of being every sort of brilliant playmaker and puck-mover/breakout generator/transition player you could possibly want and having terrific four way mobility. Correspondingly, he recorded 100th percentiles in the following categories in Mitch Brown’s data tracking model: xA1/60, slot passes/60, controlled entries/60, cross-lane plays/60, board-to-middle plays/60, advantages created/60, offense involvement, and xG buildup/60. His hockey brain is razor sharp, he possesses dominant speed and agility, and possesses the skill level to run a team’s offense. This is only a fraction of who he will become as a player, and I am quite fascinated to see what his time on Commonwealth Ave will do for his development. The NHL player comparison that makes the most sense for me for Villaneuve is Quinn Hughes.

LW Marcus Nordmark (SHL/J20 Nationell, Djurgårdens IF)

Admittedly, Nordmark’s eight game cup of coffee in the SHL (in which he recorded just one assist) was defined by growing pains. He never really looked comfortable and failed to make a true impact. However, it should not be taken away from him that he has a terrific track record playing in junior level competitions. This season, he had a strong output in the J20, following up a 14 goal and 24 assist in 25 games played regular season campaign with a 23 point playoff run (accounting for a PPG of just over 2 in 11 games played). He also had a strong performance at the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, recording 12 points in 5 games as Sweden took the silver medal. His J20 output gave him a 40% star probability and 77% probability of being a 200 gamer in Byron Bader’s model. Nordmark has always stood out to me for his work rate, his usage as a great cycle driver, and outstanding shot mechanics and ability to find soft ice. I think he can grow into a more confident and effective player at the pro level quite quickly and make whichever NHL franchise that drafts him quite happy. Filip Forsberg comes to mind for me as a noteworthy player comp.