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NCAA III Men’s Ice Hockey: Goalie Analytics 1.0

Welcome back for another round of NCAA III analytics. In contrast to the production model standards for skaters, we have used the Goals Saved Above the Average metric to rate goalie performances over the 2023-24 season in conjunction with traditional save percentage statistics. GSAA is a statistic that is derived from SV% and GA, similar to WAR in Baseball, that references the number of goals that the league average starting goalie would be expected to stop against the volume that any individual goalie would face. Positive GSAA implies how many more goals the goalie prevented as opposed to the average, and a negative GSAA is how many more goals that a goalie gave up than an average goalie in the same position. The “Star” column is derived from a combination of save percentage and GSAA aggregates against the league average to determine the top players at the position. The “Replacement” column is indicative of players whose stats fall into the 20th percentile of their position.

The downside to GSAA is that it does not include the quality of chances that the goalies faced, undermining its efficiency for covering the range of talent levels in NCAA III; however, high caliber goalies on poor performing teams still managed to land on the positive side. Unfortunately, until the NCAA (I and III) improves its possession metrics tracking, we will have to settle for GSAA until then.

PLAYERTEAMGPGAASV%WLTSOTOISVSGASAGSAAStar
Damon BeaverHobart College200.940.9621811712805022052223.848Star
Tyriq OutenStevenson Univ.261.820.9431961415537824782922.636Star
Peyton DurandTufts Univ.252.060.9411393315128225287421.416Star
Shane SoderwallCurry College211.590.94912476093364220.928Star
Devon BobakTrinity College301.190.946254117686123564719.348Star
Tate BrandonSkidmore College271.760.9381952415386794572415.816Star
Dershahn StewartAdrian College291.790.936016417134976215.008Star
Ethan RobertsUtica Univ.211.570.941012635253355813.872Star
Samuel VyletelkaAugsburg Univ.262.290.9321582415187975885513.82Star
Sami MoluNorwich Univ.151.620.94376218923962442011.28Star
Kyle CurtinElmira College242.390.9311581213327125376511.26Star
Cayden BaileySalve Regina Univ.252.220.931013766905174111.244Star
Kalle AnderssonPlymouth State Univ.251.850.9322131214936274667310.532Star
Alexander KozicBowdoin College232.050.9321274213496264667210.448Star
Matt HennesseyAnna Maria College172.590.932106010216034464710.348Star
Atticus KellyEndicott College162.060.93609634823351510.26Star
Jack RiedellSUNY-Cortland152.20.9351230900478335119.924Star
Collin BerkeSouthern New Hampshire Univ.152.270.934950898484345189.512Star
Jacob TorgnerSUNY-Geneseo131.740.9449202655319193389.392Star
Lenny PernoSUNY-Potsdam192.780.92961201103663517148.976Average
Cole ManahanSt. Michael’s College132.550.935550660406284348.456Star
Austin RymanBethel Univ.202.060.9322000962451334847.656Average
Billy GirardUniv. of New England2220.92801350579456247.416Average
Bryan LandsbergerUtica Univ.111.140.9510528196102067.304Average
Travis AllenBethel Univ.151.890.9380634301203216.964Average
Ryan WilsonEndicott College131.880.9350735332233556.82Average
Freddy SoderbergFitchburg State Univ.152.480.93940798441334746.816Average
Erik VoloshinWesleyan Univ.122.430.9312810717393294226.448Average
Jack BoschertUniv. of Wisconsin-Superior131.870.935561707316223386.392Average
Austin SchwabMilwaukee School of Eng.222.350.92501277619506696.196Average
Bryce WalcariusNorwich Univ.111.460.947122618234152495.916Average
Logan BatemanAlbertus Magnus College222.10.92514801313570466165.744Average
Michael Paterson-JonesWilkes Univ.102.250.9336402586308223305.72Average
Adam HarrisSUNY-Geneseo172.270.92712401927447354825.488Average
Jacob HearneSUNY-Plattsburgh171.80.92814211033401314325.288Average
Mavrick GoyerHobart College110.910.947910659716191705.28Average
Mat GoverMass. College of Liberal Arts213.40.92261411253837719085.272Average
Max GutjahrUniv. of Wisconsin-Eau Claire271.80.924169271599586486345.256Average
Alex ProctorUniv. of Wisconsin-Stevens Point262.130.923185211546660557155.06Average
Jackson FellnerAlvernia Univ.182.680.92489101074582486304.92Average
Dysen SkinnerUniv. of Wisconsin-River Falls151.770.938423782307233304.72Average
Eino RissanenCollege of St. Scholastica102.150.9340475239172564.504Average
Kevin ChandlerWestfield State Univ.152.670.925651787434354694.396Average
Logan DyckSUNY-Fredonia152.50.9261101721378304084.272Average
Cameron KuntarChatham Univ.112.620.9246500664354293833.172Average
Hunter GarveySt. Norbert College231.90.92201001387517445613.124Average
C.J. HapwardSuffolk Univ.122.670.9231720386324183.112Average
Trey MillerSUNY-Canton123.020.923630577350293792.836Average
Lukas HaugenSt. Olaf College131.910.9251000724283233062.704Average
Jon HoweSaint John’s Univ.172.320.9220000751343293722.248Average
Daniel DavidsonUMass-Dartmouth172.590.92970973484425262.184Average
Thomas LalondeSt. Olaf College162.160.9210890374324062.104Average
Tyler BostNichols College192.850.919411401075576516271.668Average
Jack PernaWilkes Univ.172.420.91911501942433384711.564Average
Jackson HjelleGustavus Adolphus College162.150.921000839345303751.5Average
Anthony AurelianoWestern New England Univ.153.690.9180895616556711.364Average
A.J. RuskowskiSaint Mary’s Univ.153.260.9180100828506455511.284Average
Will AugustineRivier Univ.102.970.92342565320283481.232Average
Keaton WoolseyHamline Univ.102.020.9290179786841.056Average
Jack GrantHamilton College152.710.9189601888447404870.908Average
Mason PalmerUniv. of Southern Maine113.170.9185321624368334010.684Average
Maxymilian BanounFranklin Pierce Univ.133.310.917450617377344110.524Average
Thomas McLarnonAssumption Univ.192.780.917144011146584536370.508Average
Jake HorohoMiddlebury College212.550.917710321178551506010.484Average
Jeremy ConnorFranklin Pierce Univ.153.210.916660767450414910.244Average
Dean BuchholzUniv. of Wisconsin-River Falls182.550.916861196744741488-0.0079999999999956Average
Kobe GrantUniv. of Wisconsin-Superior112.20.91537059923722259-0.244Average
Brandon MilbergSUNY-Oswego122.230.91561048419318211-0.276Average
Chris CurrUniv. of Dubuque113.450.915064439837435-0.46Average
Matt SaylesNazareth College142.580.914069732030350-0.6Average
Sean DynanConnecticut College172.610.9146101196844642488-1.008Average
Jack BostedtCollege of St. Scholastica182.650.9140111051949568-1.288Average
L.J. NewellRivier Univ.142.730.91367079337736413-1.308Average
Mason RosadoBabson College132.420.912742179433332365-1.34Average
Matthew O’DonnellAurora Univ.132.970.91046523223255-1.58Average
Ronan MobleySUNY-Cortland122.850.91136267532832360-1.76Average
Bailey HuberSaint John’s Univ.132.780.911010073534934383-1.828Average
Max MacchioniFitchburg State Univ.142.780.91165279937737414-2.224Average
Wyatt FriedlanderWorcester State Univ.114.010.9126054036636402-2.232Average
Connor LeslieAmherst College122.660.907731067729230322-2.952Average
Andrew BeranColby College242.530.91281243144863061691-2.956Average
William McEvoyConnecticut College103.120.902231042320322225-3.1Average
Marc SmithWesleyan Univ.113.330.905370059631433347-3.852Average
Andrew LoRussoWestern New England Univ.104.260.907054937939418-3.888Average
Kai TomitaNew England College183.230.9094120298553153584-3.944Average
Charles-Anthony BarbeauSUNY-Fredonia153.40.90758074141142453-3.948Average
Matt BidiniKing’s College123.770.906460158935637393-3.988Average
Cameron CarrollSaint Anselm College253.220.9129142149082480904-4.064Average
Dawson GreenUniv. of Wisconsin-Stout192.760.907761289239841439-4.124Average
Jacob MucitelliAurora Univ.222.770.9080108249650546-4.136Average
Trevor StenbergFramingham State Univ.203.030.9097112116759259651-4.316Average
Samuel BestUMass-Boston182.810.907890098244846494-4.504Average
Maximilian HaselbacherHamline Univ.193.020.9070100101350051551-4.716Average
Zach RichardsPost Univ.133.360.904110169636939408-4.728Average
Alex WiscoAmherst College142.970.903670072933636372-4.752Average
Ryan BurgessArcadia Univ.153.910.908573184554355598-4.768Average
Kelson HooperSUNY-Canton123.770.90529166840042442-4.872Average
Marcus CumberworthBuffalo State College183.330.908692101055256608-4.928Average
Kyle PentonUniv. of Southern Maine163.470.907591088349651547-5.052Average
Sean GuerinSouthern New Hampshire Univ.163.280.90759291648550535-5.06Average
Dakota MeyerUniv. of Dubuque103.460.901060832035355-5.18Average
Jake PerrinJohnson & Wales Univ.104.180.9260048830534339-5.524Average
Cal SchellSUNY-Oswego212.530.9041081104341444458-5.528Average
Eli ShillerSUNY-Plattsburgh112.450.89473166322827255-5.58Average
Jake InzirilloJohnson & Wales Univ.104.190.896241043025930289-5.724Average
Jakub KubikWorcester State Univ.193.740.906612097859161652-6.232Average
Nathan MuellerBabson College133.10.9760177536140401-6.316Average
Bobby McCloskeyLake Forest College133.240.899074235840398-6.568Average
Jack McGovernWentworth Inst. of Tech.233.20.9070131368470754-6.664Average
John RobertsSt. Norbert College103.140.879100042116022182-6.712Average
Nolan MahaffeyLawrence Univ.213.390.9050108158161642-7.072Average
Marshall McKallip VUMass-Dartmouth113.320.89574065130836344-7.104Average
Tyler MasternakUniv. of Wisconsin-Stout153.160.899681283539344437-7.292Average
Christopher BranchLebanon Valley College153.970.9034100080249153544-7.304Average
Valtteri ValtonenWestfield State Univ.173.570.977180743148479-7.764Replacement
Marko BelakGustavus Adolphus College143.080.878001050618726213-8.108Replacement
Owen CarlsonLawrence Univ.143.920.884047523731268-8.488Replacement
Tyler SaygerKing’s College133.890.892380060232339362-8.592Replacement
Jaxon FriedmanJohnson & Wales Univ.114.380.894271059036443407-8.812Replacement
Sebastian WoodsManhattanville College203.340.90161201105953759596-8.936Average
Kyle KozmaTrine Univ.232.330.8970123741648464-9.024Replacement
Dylan WiemerSUNY-Brockport193.290.9016102109554660606-9.096Average
Trevor WongHamline Univ.164.220.856100031313122153-9.148Replacement
Raphael ProvencherNazareth College133.640.894072637044414-9.224Replacement
Matthew SanknerSaint Mary’s Univ.133.480.892010072634842390-9.24Replacement
Ryan CreenanMorrisville State College103.910.87425043019428222-9.352Replacement
Diego D’AlessandroKing’s College104.680.865220033416726193-9.788Replacement
Cole DefazioNeumann Univ.193.280.89871110111753761598-10.768Replacement
Antonio TarantinoUMass-Boston114.120.877162051025035285-11.06Replacement
Cal SandquistWilliams College243.180.90191313139667574749-11.084Average
Garrett BoyonoskiMorrisville State College164.390.899212188957665641-11.156Replacement
Drew BlodgettPost Univ.153.940.889111076340250452-12.032Replacement
Christopher JacksonSuffolk Univ.104.780.847036416129190-13.04Replacement
Matt FitzgeraldConcordia College192.980.8860108741854472-14.352Replacement
Aaron MercerSalem State University115.050.88429063140453457-14.612Replacement
Marshall MurphySt. Michael’s College193.660.8911090108454266608-14.928Replacement
Viktor WennbergNorthland College244.320.89912200129283093923-15.468Replacement
Aaron BrunnMarian Univ.233.650.8890131664080720-19.52Replacement
Dominic RodrigueCastleton Univ.194.450.88341201102657376649-21.484Replacement
Gabe RosekConcordia Univ. Wisconsin254.430.88901381820102922-24.552Replacement

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3 responses to “NCAA III Men’s Ice Hockey: Goalie Analytics 1.0”

  1. […] players PPG in our Star Equivalency Models. I have a general explanation of the GSAA Stat in last year’s model. To refer to historic statistics of what is exceptional for goaltending, the 80th percentile of […]

  2. […] those who read our 2023-2024 Men’s GSAA model, we’ve explored a rating system similar to the one’s used in the production models in […]

  3. […] those who read our 2023-2024 Men’s GSAA model, we’ve explored a rating system similar to the one’s used in the production models in […]

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